CAJ | 학술논문

促进经济与碳排放脱钩发展已成为政府和学术界关注的焦点。在整合产业结构理论和工业化理论的基础上,提出了产业结构与碳排放强度演进的＂开口P型曲线＂假说,该假说得到了已实现工业化国家演进事实的数据支持。对我国二者演进关系的估算结果表明正处于＂开口P型曲线＂的拐弯阶段,产业结构仅有个别年份对碳排放强度起结构红利贡献,整体上是结构负担贡献。估算结果有两个政策含义一是在现有考核办法中新增碳排放总量的考核指标和相应管理办法;二是大力发展现代服务业。
촉진경제여탄배방탈구발전이성위정부화학술계관주적초점。재정합산업결구이론화공업화이론적기출상,제출료산업결구여탄배방강도연진적＂개구P형곡선＂가설,해가설득도료이실현공업화국가연진사실적수거지지。대아국이자연진관계적고산결과표명정처우＂개구P형곡선＂적괴만계단,산업결구부유개별년빈대탄배방강도기결구홍리공헌,정체상시결구부담공헌。고산결과유량개정책함의일시재현유고핵판법중신증탄배방총량적고핵지표화상응관리판법;이시대력발전현대복무업。
Promoting economy and carbon emissions decoupling development has become the attention focus of the government and academia.Based on the integration theory of the industrial structure and industrialization theory,＂open P shape curve＂ hypothesis of the industrial structure and the carbon intensity evolution was proposed,this hypothesis has realized the data support by the industrialized countries evolution.The estimation of the relationship between the evolution relationships of our country results show that our country is in the round stage of the ＂open P shape curve＂,the industrial structure only shows structure bonus contribution on carbon emissions intensity in individual year,the overall structure of the contribution is burden.The estimation results have two policy meaning： one is in the current assessment method of carbon emissions,new evaluation indicators and the corresponding management measures should be increased,the other is to strive to develop the modern service industry.