CAJ | 학술논문

基于1995—2010年中国29省的面板数据，运用STIRPAT模型研究了城市化对低、中、高收入组省份CO2排放的影响。研究结果表明：人口数量的增加会导致CO!排放量的增加；各省人均实际收入和CO2排放量之间存在倒U形关系；随着人均实际收入的上升．城市化对低、中、高收入省份CO2排放量的影响是不同的：对低收入组而言，城市化和CO2排放量之间呈U形变化关系，对中等收入组而言，城市化水平的上升会带来CO2排放量的单调增加；而对高收入组来说，城市化和CO2排放量之间存在倒U形变化关系。说明城市化水平的上升对居民能源消费结构和技术进步的影响存在差异，且这种差异性与居民收入水平高低和经济发展阶段是密切相关的。因此．建议在推进城市化的过程中。针对不同收入组提出不同的政策侧重点。以优化能源结构，提高能源配置效率。实现节能减排的目标。
기우1995—2010년중국29성적면판수거，운용STIRPAT모형연구료성시화대저、중、고수입조성빈CO2배방적영향。연구결과표명：인구수량적증가회도치CO!배방량적증가；각성인균실제수입화CO2배방량지간존재도U형관계；수착인균실제수입적상승．성시화대저、중、고수입성빈CO2배방량적영향시불동적：대저수입조이언，성시화화CO2배방량지간정U형변화관계，대중등수입조이언，성시화수평적상승회대래CO2배방량적단조증가；이대고수입조래설，성시화화CO2배방량지간존재도U형변화관계。설명성시화수평적상승대거민능원소비결구화기술진보적영향존재차이，차저충차이성여거민수입수평고저화경제발전계단시밀절상관적。인차．건의재추진성시화적과정중。침대불동수입조제출불동적정책측중점。이우화능원결구，제고능원배치효솔。실현절능감배적목표。
Based on 1995 -2010 panel data of China＇s 29 provinces, this paper examines the influence of urbanization on CO2 emissions in low-, middle-and high-income provinces by using STIRPAT model. The results suggest that increase of population will lead to the increase of CO2 emissions, and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita real income and CO2 emissions ; while with the rise of per capita real income, the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions is different in low-, middle-and high-income provinces. For low-income provinces, there is a U-shaped relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions; for middle-income provinces, the rise in the level of urbanization will increase CO2 emissions monotonously; for high-income provinces, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions. These findings imply that the impacts of urbanization on the structure of residential energy consumption and teehnological progress are different, and this difference is closely related to income levels and economic stages of development. It is therefore recommended that in order to optimize the structure of energy consumption, improve the efficiency of energy distribution and promote energy saving when advancing the urbanization process, the government should take different policies among provinces with different income levels.