企业经济
企業經濟
기업경제
Enterprise Economy
2013年
2期
35~39
,共null页
经济波动 产业结构 Granger因果检验 ARDL—ECM
經濟波動 產業結構 Granger因果檢驗 ARDL—ECM
경제파동 산업결구 Granger인과검험 ARDL—ECM
economic fluctuation; industrial structure; Granger causality test; ARDL- ECM
在分析1952～2011年我国经济波动趋势和产业结构演变的基础上，构建了经济波动与产业结构变动的计量模型，深入研究了产业结构变动对我国经济波动的影响。研究结果表明：在不同经济体制下，经济波动和产业结构变化所表现的特征差异较大，改革开放前的计划经济体制下变动频繁，波动幅度大，改革开放以后随着市场化进程的推进，二者都趋于稳定；长期以来，我国经济波动和产业结构变动互为因果，互相依赖。从产业结构变化的合理化和高级化来看，产业结构高级化对我国经济波动有显著的抑制作用，而产业结构合理化对经济波动的抑制作用要弱得多。
在分析1952～2011年我國經濟波動趨勢和產業結構縯變的基礎上，構建瞭經濟波動與產業結構變動的計量模型，深入研究瞭產業結構變動對我國經濟波動的影響。研究結果錶明：在不同經濟體製下，經濟波動和產業結構變化所錶現的特徵差異較大，改革開放前的計劃經濟體製下變動頻繁，波動幅度大，改革開放以後隨著市場化進程的推進，二者都趨于穩定；長期以來，我國經濟波動和產業結構變動互為因果，互相依賴。從產業結構變化的閤理化和高級化來看，產業結構高級化對我國經濟波動有顯著的抑製作用，而產業結構閤理化對經濟波動的抑製作用要弱得多。
재분석1952～2011년아국경제파동추세화산업결구연변적기출상，구건료경제파동여산업결구변동적계량모형，심입연구료산업결구변동대아국경제파동적영향。연구결과표명：재불동경제체제하，경제파동화산업결구변화소표현적특정차이교대，개혁개방전적계화경제체제하변동빈번，파동폭도대，개혁개방이후수착시장화진정적추진，이자도추우은정；장기이래，아국경제파동화산업결구변동호위인과，호상의뢰。종산업결구변화적합이화화고급화래간，산업결구고급화대아국경제파동유현저적억제작용，이산업결구합이화대경제파동적억제작용요약득다。
Based on the analysis of the 1952 -2011 China＇s economic fluctuation and the evolution of industrial structure, we develop a model to find the influence of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation. The results show that, in different economic systems, economic fluctuation and industrial structure have obviously different characteristics. Before the reform and open- up, under the planning economic system, economic fluctuation and industrial structure change frequently and the fluctuation range is big; after the reform and opening - up, along with the progress of marketization, both tend to be stable. For a long time, the economic fluctuation and the industrial structure change are a reciprocal causation. From the rational and high- grade views of industrial structure changes, high - grade industrial structure has a significantly inhibition and rational indus- trial structure has a rather weak inhibition to the economic fluctuation.
