CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用聚类分析方法从地区经济增长速度和房地产市场运营、盈利、偿债和规模四方面将我国31个省、直辖市和自治区划分为五大区域。研究结论主要有：房地产业的发展与经济增长密切相关，二者均呈现明显的区域性特征；房地产市场发展与地区经济增长速度基本一致，只有天津、山东、江西和广西四个地区房地产市场发展高于经济增长速度，而内蒙古和河北省则相反。以A类区域为例进行的住宅价格的相关性研究显示，区域内部住宅价格存在扩散和趋同效应，上海与北京、北京与天津之间都存在双向格兰杰因果关系；上海是天津的格兰杰原因，即存在先导一滞后关系，二者关系是单向的，反之则不成立。
본문채용취류분석방법종지구경제증장속도화방지산시장운영、영리、상채화규모사방면장아국31개성、직할시화자치구화분위오대구역。연구결론주요유：방지산업적발전여경제증장밀절상관，이자균정현명현적구역성특정；방지산시장발전여지구경제증장속도기본일치，지유천진、산동、강서화엄서사개지구방지산시장발전고우경제증장속도，이내몽고화하북성칙상반。이A류구역위례진행적주택개격적상관성연구현시，구역내부주택개격존재확산화추동효응，상해여북경、북경여천진지간도존재쌍향격란걸인과관계；상해시천진적격란걸원인，즉존재선도일체후관계，이자관계시단향적，반지칙불성립。
According to economic growth and real estate marketing, earnings, debts and scales, 31 provinces, ？ municipalities？ and au- tonomous regions in China are divided into five areas by means of the cluster analysis method. We conclude that real estate market growth is correlated with economic growth closely, and both of them have obvious regional characteristics. Real estate market growth is approximately consistent with economic growth. The real estate market growth is higher than the economic growth in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangxi and Guangxi. However, it is contrary in Inner Mongolia and Hebei. Moreover, housing price diffusion and convergence are obvious in area A. There are bilateral Granger causalities between Shanghai and Beijing, and between Beijing and Tianjin. Nevertheless, only a unilateral Granger causality exists between Shanghai and Tianjin. In fact, there is a pilot - lag relationship between Shanghai and Tianjin.