CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过构建农地非农化与碳排放之间的计量经济模型，利用我国31省（市、区）1998—2008年的面板数据。运用三阶段最小二乘法估算农地非农化对碳排放的影响及其区域差异。实证结果表明：从全国整体而言，农地非农化水平的提高将会增加碳排放量，但也存在区域差异，从样本考察期来看，中、西部农地非农化现象显著地增加了碳排放。但对东部地区来讲，从整个样本期来看，农地非农化对碳排放的影响显著，但是近年来该地区农地非农化增加碳排放的趋势却逐渐减缓。在此基础上，得出相应的政策启示。
본문통과구건농지비농화여탄배방지간적계량경제모형，이용아국31성（시、구）1998—2008년적면판수거。운용삼계단최소이승법고산농지비농화대탄배방적영향급기구역차이。실증결과표명：종전국정체이언，농지비농화수평적제고장회증가탄배방량，단야존재구역차이，종양본고찰기래간，중、서부농지비농화현상현저지증가료탄배방。단대동부지구래강，종정개양본기래간，농지비농화대탄배방적영향현저，단시근년래해지구농지비농화증가탄배방적추세각축점감완。재차기출상，득출상응적정책계시。
Using the panel data of 31 provinces, cities or districts of China in the period from 1998 to 2008, employing the econometric model, this paper estimates the effects of farmland conversion on carbon emissions and regional difference by using the Three - Stage Least Square method. The quantitative results showed that farmland conversion generally has a significant positive effect on carbon emission. However, the effect has regional difference, in the whole sample period, the phenomenon of farmland conversion has significantly increase the emission of carbon dioxide in the mid- western regions; but for the eastern regions, , although farmland conversion show significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions in the sample period. Instead, a tendency of decwased emissions is observed in the recent years. Based on above conclusions, corresponding policy implications are put forward.