CAJ | 학술논문

运用回归分析预测法和时间序列分析法两种模型,以文献计量学为例,对近年来相关文献量的统计数据进行拟合与预测,并对两种预测模型的结果进行对比分析。结果表明,时间序列预测模型对文献计量学研究的模拟预测效果较好。两种预测模型不仅适用于文献计量学发展研究,对于其他领域也同样适用。针对不同领域的学科发展趋势,在进行数据模拟和分析预测时要根据统计数据的多少和分布情况,选取一种相对效果更好并且方便可行的预测方法。
운용회귀분석예측법화시간서렬분석법량충모형,이문헌계량학위례,대근년래상관문헌량적통계수거진행의합여예측,병대량충예측모형적결과진행대비분석。결과표명,시간서렬예측모형대문헌계량학연구적모의예측효과교호。량충예측모형불부괄용우문헌계량학발전연구,대우기타영역야동양괄용。침대불동영역적학과발전추세,재진행수거모의화분석예측시요근거통계수거적다소화분포정황,선취일충상대효과경호병차방편가행적예측방법。
Take Bibliometries as an example, apply two models, that is Regression Analysis Prediction Method and Time Series Analysis Method, to the statistical data of the recent years＇ literature to fit and predict, furthermore, compare and analysis the results of the two prediction models. The results showed that it was the Time Series Analysis Method that might have a better result of simulation and prediction to the study of Bibliometrics. Not only the two prediction models could be used in Bibliezaetries, but also could be used in other fields. When proceeding data simulating and analysis and forecasting, chose a better and more convenient and feasible prediction method, according to the devdopment trends in different fields of disciplines and the amount and the distribution of statistical data.