华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
East China Economic Management
2013年
3期
135~139
,共null页
财务困境机理 宏观经济时素 行业环境 Probit
財務睏境機理 宏觀經濟時素 行業環境 Probit
재무곤경궤리 굉관경제시소 행업배경 Probit
mechanism of financial distress; macroeconomic factors; industrial environment ; Probit
财务困境预警研究，应跳出“唯财务观”的怪圈，将宏观经济因素、行业环境因素等同时纳入财务困境研究可行且必要、文章从事物发展内外因辩证关系的角度重新构建了企业财务困境的发生机理；并从宏观经济因素、行业环境因素、治理与财务结构因素、审计意见类型、财务指标等5个维度建立预警指标。采用Probit模型对2003—2011年度部分上市公司数据进行了实证分析，我们发现：高资产负债率、经济不景气、非清洁审计意见、商品零售价格指数等时财务困境发生具有正向“诊断”作用；而总资产净利率、每股经营活动现金流量、GDP增长变动率、股权结构集中等对企业财务困境的发生具有负向“诊断”作用。
財務睏境預警研究，應跳齣“唯財務觀”的怪圈，將宏觀經濟因素、行業環境因素等同時納入財務睏境研究可行且必要、文章從事物髮展內外因辯證關繫的角度重新構建瞭企業財務睏境的髮生機理；併從宏觀經濟因素、行業環境因素、治理與財務結構因素、審計意見類型、財務指標等5箇維度建立預警指標。採用Probit模型對2003—2011年度部分上市公司數據進行瞭實證分析，我們髮現：高資產負債率、經濟不景氣、非清潔審計意見、商品零售價格指數等時財務睏境髮生具有正嚮“診斷”作用；而總資產淨利率、每股經營活動現金流量、GDP增長變動率、股權結構集中等對企業財務睏境的髮生具有負嚮“診斷”作用。
재무곤경예경연구，응도출“유재무관”적괴권，장굉관경제인소、행업배경인소등동시납입재무곤경연구가행차필요、문장종사물발전내외인변증관계적각도중신구건료기업재무곤경적발생궤리；병종굉관경제인소、행업배경인소、치리여재무결구인소、심계의견류형、재무지표등5개유도건립예경지표。채용Probit모형대2003—2011년도부분상시공사수거진행료실증분석，아문발현：고자산부채솔、경제불경기、비청길심계의견、상품령수개격지수등시재무곤경발생구유정향“진단”작용；이총자산정리솔、매고경영활동현금류량、GDP증장변동솔、고권결구집중등대기업재무곤경적발생구유부향“진단”작용。
Financial ratios should not be the only focus of the research on financial distress early-warning.h was possible and necessary to take the facturs into eunsideration such as macrneeonomics, industrial environment, etc.In the paper, the mechanism of financial distress was recunstrueted in terms of dialectic relationship of internal and external, and then the early-warn- ing indicators frum 5 dimensions such as macrueconomics, industry environments, governance and financial structure, the type of audit opinion, and financial ratios were established. Finally, the empirical test was done by using the data of some listed companies from 2003 to 2011 with Probit model, the conclusions were the following： high debt ratio, downturn economy, non-clean auditing opiniun and RPI had a positive ＂diagnosis＂ effect on financial distress, whereas ROA, operating cash flow per share, ROC of GDP growth, and concentration of equity structure had a negative ＂diagnosis＂ effect on financial distress.
