CAJ | 학술논문

从历史经验来看，货币政策对房地产行业的发展有着根本的影响。本文运用结构化向量自回归模型（SVAR模型），考察了货币政策调控对房地产公司业绩的影响，并进行了脉冲响应和方差分解分析。实证结果显示：货币政策冲击在短期内对房地产公司的业绩具有正向影响，且数量型货币政策工具的冲击效应要强于价格型货币政策工具；以广义货币供应量和利率为核心的货币政策变量对企业的经营绩效存在滞后效应。因此，有效控制房地产公司的财务杠杆比率，促使其实行稳健型的财务策略，将有助于企业在常态化的宏观调控中保持稳定的收益预期。
종역사경험래간，화폐정책대방지산행업적발전유착근본적영향。본문운용결구화향량자회귀모형（SVAR모형），고찰료화폐정책조공대방지산공사업적적영향，병진행료맥충향응화방차분해분석。실증결과현시：화폐정책충격재단기내대방지산공사적업적구유정향영향，차수량형화폐정책공구적충격효응요강우개격형화폐정책공구；이엄의화폐공응량화리솔위핵심적화폐정책변량대기업적경영적효존재체후효응。인차，유효공제방지산공사적재무강간비솔，촉사기실행은건형적재무책략，장유조우기업재상태화적굉관조공중보지은정적수익예기。
From historical experience, the monetary policy has a fundamental impact on the development of the real estate industry. In this paper, with SVAR model, the authors examine the influence of monetary policy on real estate company performance. The results show that monetary policy has positive influence on short-term within the real estate company＇s performance, and the impact of quantitative monetary policy tools are stronger than the price monetary policy tools; There is discernible lagging effects of money supply and interest rate on business performance. Therefore, the effective control of the real estate enterprise financial leverage ratio and implement steady financial strategies will contribute to maintain stable profit expectation in the normalization of the macroeconomie regulation.