CAJ | 학술논문

在开放条件下，中国过剩流动性的波动受到了内生货币化进程和美元流动性输入的共同影响。内生货币化进程决定了中国的均衡货币化路径，即马歇尔K指标（M2／GDP）的均衡增长路径。而美元流动性输入则影响了中国马歇尔K指标围绕均衡路径的变动趋势，进而影响了过剩流动性的波动。本文使用向量误差修正模型分析了中国货币总量、实际产出，以及美元流动性之间的双重均衡关系，从而分析了1998年以来中国过剩流动性的波动规律。而加入马尔可夫链的非线性模型显示，在美国执行第一轮“量化宽松货币政策（QE1）”以后，美元流动性对中国宏观流动性状况的短期冲击效应显著提高。在美国已经开启新一轮量化宽松政策的背景下，这些结论将有助于我们更好地判断中国当前的流动性状况，并提高货币政策的前瞻性。
재개방조건하，중국과잉류동성적파동수도료내생화폐화진정화미원류동성수입적공동영향。내생화폐화진정결정료중국적균형화폐화로경，즉마헐이K지표（M2／GDP）적균형증장로경。이미원류동성수입칙영향료중국마헐이K지표위요균형로경적변동추세，진이영향료과잉류동성적파동。본문사용향량오차수정모형분석료중국화폐총량、실제산출，이급미원류동성지간적쌍중균형관계，종이분석료1998년이래중국과잉류동성적파동규률。이가입마이가부련적비선성모형현시，재미국집행제일륜“양화관송화폐정책（QE1）”이후，미원류동성대중국굉관류동성상황적단기충격효응현저제고。재미국이경개계신일륜양화관송정책적배경하，저사결론장유조우아문경호지판단중국당전적류동성상황，병제고화폐정책적전첨성。
For Chinese economy, the excess liquidity should be defined as the deviation of actual money stock from its equilibrium path. This paper uses MS-VECM fitting the long-term linear growing path and short-term non-linear growing path of Chinese monetization ratio. Based on the equilibrium path, this paper analyzes the periodic fluctuations of Chinese excess liquidity. There is evidence showing that U. S. dollar liquidity, along with Chinese policy variables, affected the fluctuations of Chinese excess liquidity. In the Post-Crisis Era, Chinese monetization ratio is approaching its equilibrium path. However, China needs to get prepared for hedging the potential changes of dollar liquidity.