CAJ | 학술논문

不同经济主体因为获取、处理经济信息能力差异，会表现出通胀预期的异质性。信息强势主体与弱势主体之间存在信息扩散与学习，因此货币政策有效的前提是反映信息强势主体的预期。本文分别测定了公众通胀预期和专家通胀预期，并选取7天的银行同业拆借利率作为因变量，将两种预期分别置入前瞻性泰勒货币政策反应函数中，检验基于不同主体预期的利率规则值与实际值之间的差异。实证结果表明，没有反映专家预期可能是近年来货币政策效力较差的重要原因。
불동경제주체인위획취、처리경제신식능력차이，회표현출통창예기적이질성。신식강세주체여약세주체지간존재신식확산여학습，인차화폐정책유효적전제시반영신식강세주체적예기。본문분별측정료공음통창예기화전가통창예기，병선취7천적은행동업탁차리솔작위인변량，장량충예기분별치입전첨성태륵화폐정책반응함수중，검험기우불동주체예기적리솔규칙치여실제치지간적차이。실증결과표명，몰유반영전가예기가능시근년래화폐정책효력교차적중요원인。
The heterogeneity of inflation expectation results from various abilities of acquiring and processing economic information for different economic subjects. There exist information diffusion and learning effects between superiority and subordinate information subjects. The prerequisite of monetary policy efficiency, thus, is its ability to reflect the superiority information subject＇s expectation. This paper, using Forward-looking Taylor monetary policy reaction function, examines the difference between the actual rate and rule rate in China by choosing public and expert expectations as independent variables and 7-day interbank offering rate as dependent one. The result shows that the ignorance of experts＇ expectation may be the primary reason for the lower efficiency of China＇s monetary policy in recent years.