证券市场导报
證券市場導報
증권시장도보
Securities Market Herald
2013年
3期
11~16
,共null页
新三驾马车 城镇化 资本化 金融化
新三駕馬車 城鎮化 資本化 金融化
신삼가마차 성진화 자본화 금융화
＂New troika＂, urbanization, capitalization, financialization
传统宏观经济理论将消费、投资和净出口作为驱动短期经济增长的“三驾马车”。近年来，国际市场的需求萎缩、国内投资的剧烈波动以及刺激内需的政策效果难以具有持续性的影响，使得传统的“旧三驾马车”正在失灵。我们提出中长期驱动中国经济转型发展的“新三驾马车”：城镇化、资本化和金融化。城镇化是个综合实体经济概念，它的质量和水平的提高有助于提升居民收入水平，并能通过基础设施建设和新产业培育来拉动投资增长，具有刺激消费和投资的双重增长潜力；资本化主要提供金融资源配置和促进转型发展的平台、机制和动力，解决经济发展的增量拉动和结构优化问题；金融化则有助于解决经济发展中的金融服务和存量保护和金融服务问题。本文通过建立“经济发展三驾马车”理论（即新三驾马车），试图为当前经济转型以及经济持久健康科学发展找到一种新的路径、机制和动力。
傳統宏觀經濟理論將消費、投資和淨齣口作為驅動短期經濟增長的“三駕馬車”。近年來，國際市場的需求萎縮、國內投資的劇烈波動以及刺激內需的政策效果難以具有持續性的影響，使得傳統的“舊三駕馬車”正在失靈。我們提齣中長期驅動中國經濟轉型髮展的“新三駕馬車”：城鎮化、資本化和金融化。城鎮化是箇綜閤實體經濟概唸，它的質量和水平的提高有助于提升居民收入水平，併能通過基礎設施建設和新產業培育來拉動投資增長，具有刺激消費和投資的雙重增長潛力；資本化主要提供金融資源配置和促進轉型髮展的平檯、機製和動力，解決經濟髮展的增量拉動和結構優化問題；金融化則有助于解決經濟髮展中的金融服務和存量保護和金融服務問題。本文通過建立“經濟髮展三駕馬車”理論（即新三駕馬車），試圖為噹前經濟轉型以及經濟持久健康科學髮展找到一種新的路徑、機製和動力。
전통굉관경제이론장소비、투자화정출구작위구동단기경제증장적“삼가마차”。근년래，국제시장적수구위축、국내투자적극렬파동이급자격내수적정책효과난이구유지속성적영향，사득전통적“구삼가마차”정재실령。아문제출중장기구동중국경제전형발전적“신삼가마차”：성진화、자본화화금융화。성진화시개종합실체경제개념，타적질량화수평적제고유조우제승거민수입수평，병능통과기출설시건설화신산업배육래랍동투자증장，구유자격소비화투자적쌍중증장잠력；자본화주요제공금융자원배치화촉진전형발전적평태、궤제화동력，해결경제발전적증량랍동화결구우화문제；금융화칙유조우해결경제발전중적금융복무화존량보호화금융복무문제。본문통과건립“경제발전삼가마차”이론（즉신삼가마차），시도위당전경제전형이급경제지구건강과학발전조도일충신적로경、궤제화동력。
Consumption, investment and net exports are thought a driver of short-term economic growth ＂troika＂ by the traditional macroeconomics. In recent years, the shrinking demand in the international market, dramatic fluctuations in the domestic investment, as well as the unsustainable impact from policies to stimulate domestic demand, are making the old ＂troika＂ less and less effective. We put forward a medium-and-long term drive as the ＂new troika＂ for China＇s economic development： urbanization, capitalization and financialization. Urbanization is a comprehensive concept of the real economy, its quality and improvement help to increase residents＇ income, and it also can increase the investment through infrastructure development and the nurturing of new industries, having potentials to stimulate both the consumption and investment. The capitalization provides platforms, mechanisms and dynamics for the financial resources allocation and restructuring, and it boosts he economic development and optimizes the structure. The financialization can help to address some issues in financial services and stock protection. By establishing the new troika theory for economic development, this paper tries to provide a new route, mechanism and drive for the current economic transformation and its sustainable healthy development.
