CAJ | 학술논문

本文在开放条件下通过参数和非参数方法对中国1981—2010年国民收入增长状况及其特征进行了核算。结果显示尽管中国国民收入和经济增长取得了举世瞩目的成就，但近年来全要素增长率持续下滑，国民收入增加主要依靠资本投入，可持续增长的基础并不牢固。贸易条件的恶化也在一定程度上蚕食了产出对收入增加的贡献。本文还对中国要素、产出以及两者价格之间的弹性关系进行了核算，获得了关于中国经济结构的多方面动态特征。这些特征对于中国经济结构调整和政策选择具有一定的参考价值。
본문재개방조건하통과삼수화비삼수방법대중국1981—2010년국민수입증장상황급기특정진행료핵산。결과현시진관중국국민수입화경제증장취득료거세촉목적성취，단근년래전요소증장솔지속하활，국민수입증가주요의고자본투입，가지속증장적기출병불뢰고。무역조건적악화야재일정정도상잠식료산출대수입증가적공헌。본문환대중국요소、산출이급량자개격지간적탄성관계진행료핵산，획득료관우중국경제결구적다방면동태특정。저사특정대우중국경제결구조정화정책선택구유일정적삼고개치。
This paper undertakes growth accounting of China from 1981--2010 based on index number theory and parametric estimation approaches under open circumstances. The results indicate that although China has enjoyed remarkably high income growth, TFP has been slowing down and the growth in income depends heavily on capital accumulation in recent years. The deteriorating terms of trade have been playing a significant negative role in income growth. This paper also studies the impact of TFP and the changes in both domestic absorb goods prices and the terms of trade on sector output and factor impacts in China.