CAJ | 학술논문

经济增长和社会代价之间的内涵关系可以通过分析两者之间的作用机理进而建模进行实证分析。具体而言，以可持续发展理论为依据，选取代表性的社会代价指标试图从更加全面的角度构建社会代价指数，利用状态空间方程和卡尔曼滤波从定量、动态的角度来研究经济增长与社会代价的关系，用经济增长对社会代价的弹性变化来揭示中国经济增长中社会代价的动态轨迹，探讨中国目前社会代价是否在一定合理的阈值范围之内。研究结果显示中国的经济增长对社会代价的弹性在0．45～0．48之间，也就是经济每增长一个百分点，社会代价增长0．45～0．48个百分点，虽然目前中国经济增长的收益大于社会代价，但是经济增长对社会代价的弹性呈现了递增趋势。因此必须要千方百计降低社会代价，才能提高经济发展的质量，促进经济与社会的可持续发展。
경제증장화사회대개지간적내함관계가이통과분석량자지간적작용궤리진이건모진행실증분석。구체이언，이가지속발전이론위의거，선취대표성적사회대개지표시도종경가전면적각도구건사회대개지수，이용상태공간방정화잡이만려파종정량、동태적각도래연구경제증장여사회대개적관계，용경제증장대사회대개적탄성변화래게시중국경제증장중사회대개적동태궤적，탐토중국목전사회대개시부재일정합리적역치범위지내。연구결과현시중국적경제증장대사회대개적탄성재0．45～0．48지간，야취시경제매증장일개백분점，사회대개증장0．45～0．48개백분점，수연목전중국경제증장적수익대우사회대개，단시경제증장대사회대개적탄성정현료체증추세。인차필수요천방백계강저사회대개，재능제고경제발전적질량，촉진경제여사회적가지속발전。
From the perspective of the internal relationship between economic growth and social cost, this pa- per establishes the theoretical modeling on the two mechanisms. Based on the sustainable development theory, this paper selects the representative indexes and tries to create the Chinese social price index. Using the State Space Model and Kalmanfilter method, this paper reveals China＇s economic growth and social cost relationship from the dynamic and quantitative perspective. Using the elasticity of social cost to the economic growth, this paper studies on the dynamic trajectory of social cost with economic growth and discusses whether China＇s current social cost is in reasonable threshold range. It＇s concluded that the elasticity of social cost to the economic growth is in the range of 0. 45 -0. 48, which is equivalent to economy increasing 1%, the social cost increasing 0. 45% -0. 48%. Although in the present, the rate of china＇s economic growth is more than social cost, the elasticity of social cost to the eco- nomic growth shows ascendant trend. So China must make every attempt to reduce social cost to make sure improve the quality of economic development and promote economic and social sustainable development.