CAJ | 학술논문

运用单位根、协整和VECM的检验方法,实证检验了中国家庭债务和宏观经济波动之间的关系。结果显示：1997～2011年间家庭债务和宏观经济波动存在长期均衡关系,家庭债务增长1个单位,GDP相应增长0.03个单位。从短期来看,家庭债务增加促进经济增长。基于实证结果,政府及相关机构应完善消费借贷的相关制度,保持家庭债务合理增长,家庭应合理控制债务的规模和提升风险防范意识。
운용단위근、협정화VECM적검험방법,실증검험료중국가정채무화굉관경제파동지간적관계。결과현시：1997～2011년간가정채무화굉관경제파동존재장기균형관계,가정채무증장1개단위,GDP상응증장0.03개단위。종단기래간,가정채무증가촉진경제증장。기우실증결과,정부급상관궤구응완선소비차대적상관제도,보지가정채무합리증장,가정응합리공제채무적규모화제승풍험방범의식。
The Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test and VECM are employed in the study. The results showed that the long-run equilibrium relationship exists between household debt and macroeconomic fluctuations： during 1997-2011, household debt increased by one unit, the corresponding growth in GDP of 0.03 units. In the short term, the increase in household debt and promote economic growth. Based on empirical results, the government and related agencies should improve the consumer lending system to maintain reasonable growth in household debt, and the households should reasonably control the size of debt and enhance the awareness of risk prevention.