CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据中国的实际情况对BGT模型进行了修正,并利用OLS方法和2SLS方法及中国2000-2011年间的月度数据进行实证检验。检验结果表明：虽然中国国际资本流动对中央银行净国内资产变动的抵消系数高达-0.743,但中央银行反向的冲销操作同样十分有效,冲销系数高达-1.022。这不仅使得国际资本流动对我国基础货币和货币供给的影响极其有限,甚至引起了货币乘数和物价水平的反向变化。事实上,净国外资产变动一个单位只能使基础货币和货币供给分别增加0.018个单位和0.098个单位,却会使货币乘数和通货膨胀分别下降4.095和1.098个单位。这说明近年来中国国际资本流动的货币效应都十分微弱,货币政策效应却很强。
본문근거중국적실제정황대BGT모형진행료수정,병이용OLS방법화2SLS방법급중국2000-2011년간적월도수거진행실증검험。검험결과표명：수연중국국제자본류동대중앙은행정국내자산변동적저소계수고체-0.743,단중앙은행반향적충소조작동양십분유효,충소계수고체-1.022。저불부사득국제자본류동대아국기출화폐화화폐공급적영향겁기유한,심지인기료화폐승수화물개수평적반향변화。사실상,정국외자산변동일개단위지능사기출화폐화화폐공급분별증가0.018개단위화0.098개단위,각회사화폐승수화통화팽창분별하강4.095화1.098개단위。저설명근년래중국국제자본류동적화폐효응도십분미약,화폐정책효응각흔강。
The BGT model is corrected according to the actual situation of China in this article,and empirical researches are made by monthly data of China during 2000-2011 with OLS method and 2SLS method.The empirical results indicate that： the sterilized coefficient of international capital flows to the net domestic assets change of China＇s central bank is as high as-0.743,but the offsetting operations of the central bank are also very effective,and the offsetting factor is as high as-1.022.This not only makes the influence of international capital flows on China＇s monetary base and the money supply be very limited,but also leads the money multiplier and the price level to change reversely.In fact,a unit change of the net foreign assets can only cause the monetary base and the money supply to increase 0.018 units and 0.098 units,while cause the money multiplier and the price level to decrease 4.095 units and 1.098 units.All the results show that the monetary effect of international capital flows in China is very weak,while the effect of monetary policies are very large in recent years.