CAJ | 학술논문

能源是国民经济最基本的物质基础之一，研究地区能源消费与经济增长的关系对于新疆的跨越式发展具有重要现实意义。运用协整理论，对1952-2009年新疆能源消费和经济增长相关数据的协整分析表明：能源中的煤炭消费量与国民生产总值是协整的，二者存在长期的均衡关系；进一步的格兰杰检验表明：经济增长与煤炭消费量之间是格兰杰单向因果关系，即经济的增长引起煤炭消费量的增加；误差修正模型表明国民生产总值与煤炭消费量之间存在不显著的短期误差修正机制；新疆的经济增长仍然是以大量消耗煤炭为基础，现有能源消费结构不合理，能源利用效率低。在此基础上提出相应的对策建议，以实现新疆的科学跨越。
능원시국민경제최기본적물질기출지일，연구지구능원소비여경제증장적관계대우신강적과월식발전구유중요현실의의。운용협정이론，대1952-2009년신강능원소비화경제증장상관수거적협정분석표명：능원중적매탄소비량여국민생산총치시협정적，이자존재장기적균형관계；진일보적격란걸검험표명：경제증장여매탄소비량지간시격란걸단향인과관계，즉경제적증장인기매탄소비량적증가；오차수정모형표명국민생산총치여매탄소비량지간존재불현저적단기오차수정궤제；신강적경제증장잉연시이대량소모매탄위기출，현유능원소비결구불합리，능원이용효솔저。재차기출상제출상응적대책건의，이실현신강적과학과월。
Energy is one of the most essential matters for national economic. It＇s important to study relationship between regional energy consumption and economic growth for development of straddle style in Xinjiang. Co-integration theory is applied to analyse datum of energy consumption and GDP in Xinjiang from 1952 to 2009. Some results are obtained that GDP and coal consumption is co-integrated and has a longtime equilibrium between them. Further Granger test shows that economic growth and energy consumption is one-way Granger causality, namely, economic growth is the Granger causality of coal consumption. Error correction mode shows that a faint error correction mechanism has between economic growth and coal consumption. In Xinjiang, economic growth still relies on high speed coal consumption, energy consumption structure is unconscionable and energy＇s service efficiency is low by now. Based on foregoing analysis, some relevant proposals are given to realize scientific development of straddle style in Xinjiang.