CAJ | 학술논문

政府把新型农村社会养老保险（“新农保”）视为增加农民收入的重要手段，新农保在一定程度上构成了城镇对农村的转移支付，并采取了“现收现付”的给付方式。在此背景下，本文建立了一个包含人口迁移的两部门模型，研究城镇向农村养老保障体系的转移支付对农民收入的影响。分析发现，当进城农民会获得市民身份时，转移支付会降低农民收入。当进城农民无法获得市民身份时，转移支付有可能增加农民收入，利率越低、市民占人口比例越高，转移支付的“增收”（增加农民收入）作用就越大，并且当市民占人口比例低于某个临界值时，转移支付的“增收”作用是负的，即降低农民收入，反之则反是。在“现收现付”的给付方式下，转移支付在短期内有较大的“增收”作用，但代价是长期的“增收”作用下降，甚至可能降为负值。无论政府是对城镇居民还是对城镇产出征税，以上结论都成立。
정부파신형농촌사회양로보험（“신농보”）시위증가농민수입적중요수단，신농보재일정정도상구성료성진대농촌적전이지부，병채취료“현수현부”적급부방식。재차배경하，본문건립료일개포함인구천이적량부문모형，연구성진향농촌양로보장체계적전이지부대농민수입적영향。분석발현，당진성농민회획득시민신빈시，전이지부회강저농민수입。당진성농민무법획득시민신빈시，전이지부유가능증가농민수입，리솔월저、시민점인구비례월고，전이지부적“증수”（증가농민수입）작용취월대，병차당시민점인구비례저우모개림계치시，전이지부적“증수”작용시부적，즉강저농민수입，반지칙반시。재“현수현부”적급부방식하，전이지부재단기내유교대적“증수”작용，단대개시장기적“증수”작용하강，심지가능강위부치。무론정부시대성진거민환시대성진산출정세，이상결론도성립。
This paper studies the effects of transfer payment from the urban sector to rural pension system on ru- ral income, with a two - sector model with rural - urban migration. When immigrants to the urban sector are granted urban status, the effects are negative. Otherwise, the effects are possibly positive, and lower interest rate as well as higher proportion of citizens with urban status implies more positive effects. If the proportion of citizens with urban status is low enough, the effects would be negative, and vice versa. The pay-as-you-go transfer system has strong and positive effects at present, but at the cost of less positive or even negative effects in the future. All conclusions hold whether direct or indirect tax is collected.