CAJ | 학술논문

通过选取中国宏观经济季度数据，本文采用SVAR方法得出货币政策影响实际产出和居民消费的经验事实：扩张性货币政策在短期内增加产出的同时，抑制了居民消费，长期内则导致产出超调和消费持续性。基于刚性储蓄的动态新凯恩斯主义模型，不仅可以较好的解释上述事实，而且可以产生扩张性货币政策具有流动性效应的特征事实。基于该模型的中国货币政策传导机制分析表明，刚性储蓄下的流动性效应和可贷资金效应是扩张性货币政策增加实际产出的主要传导机制，价格粘性和投资调整成本则是导致产出超调的主要因素；扩张性货币政策主要通过刚性储蓄家庭的流动性约束和预防性储蓄抑制居民消费，而居民的消费习惯则是产生消费持续性的重要原因。
통과선취중국굉관경제계도수거，본문채용SVAR방법득출화폐정책영향실제산출화거민소비적경험사실：확장성화폐정책재단기내증가산출적동시，억제료거민소비，장기내칙도치산출초조화소비지속성。기우강성저축적동태신개은사주의모형，불부가이교호적해석상술사실，이차가이산생확장성화폐정책구유류동성효응적특정사실。기우해모형적중국화폐정책전도궤제분석표명，강성저축하적류동성효응화가대자금효응시확장성화폐정책증가실제산출적주요전도궤제，개격점성화투자조정성본칙시도치산출초조적주요인소；확장성화폐정책주요통과강성저축가정적류동성약속화예방성저축억제거민소비，이거민적소비습관칙시산생소비지속성적중요원인。
Based on China＇s quarterly macro -data, the paper applies SVAR method into impulse response a- nalysis of real output and private consumption under expansionary monetary policy. Our empirical facts show that expansionary monetary policy enhances output and inhibits consumption on impact, and results in output o- vershooting and consumption persistence in the long run. The dynamic new Keynesian model with rigidity sav- ings not only can match and explain the facts, but also is capable of generating an empirically plausible liquidity effect. Analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism suggests that expansionary monetary policy increases output by the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect under rigidity saving, generates output overshooting by price rigidity and investment adjustment cost, constraints private consumption mainly by cash - in - advance and precautionary saving, causes consumption persistence by habit formation.