CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用最近四次人口普查数据资料，采用净婚姻表的分析方法构建了1981—2010年男性和女性初婚表，通过初婚概率、未婚人口比例、终身结婚期待率和预期未婚寿命等关键指标来系统地分析和探讨近30年来中国初婚模式的变动及性别差异。研究结果表明：虽然初婚概率下降和峰值年龄有所推迟，男女未婚比例均保持较低水平，中国仍然属于普婚型社会；中国初婚模式的变动存在显著的性别差异，男性未婚水平较高的情况一直存在，而女性近年来初婚水平下降非常明显，初婚模式的性别差异正在逐渐缩小。中国初婚模式正处在转型中，其变迁与西方模式和亚洲模式既有相同之处也存在差异。
문장이용최근사차인구보사수거자료，채용정혼인표적분석방법구건료1981—2010년남성화녀성초혼표，통과초혼개솔、미혼인구비례、종신결혼기대솔화예기미혼수명등관건지표래계통지분석화탐토근30년래중국초혼모식적변동급성별차이。연구결과표명：수연초혼개솔하강화봉치년령유소추지，남녀미혼비례균보지교저수평，중국잉연속우보혼형사회；중국초혼모식적변동존재현저적성별차이，남성미혼수평교고적정황일직존재，이녀성근년래초혼수평하강비상명현，초혼모식적성별차이정재축점축소。중국초혼모식정처재전형중，기변천여서방모식화아주모식기유상동지처야존재차이。
Using data from several census dataset, including the newly released 2010 census, this study constructs the net nuptiality table as an analytical instrument at the national scale from 1982 - 2010, including the probability of first marriage, the percentage of single survivors, the percentage of marriage for single survivors, and the single life expectancy, with which one can explore and evaluate the new developments of China＇s first marriage pattern. Our analysis reveals that China remains as a universal-marriage society despite a steady rise of the age at first marriage. However, a certain share of people is forced to remain single at their life time. Chinese men seem to not enjoy advantages over women in the processes of marital formation and sustainability. Furthermore, gender disparity in first marriages is reduced, though increasing gender inequality in China has been widely reported.