商业经济与管理
商業經濟與管理
상업경제여관리
Business Economics and Administration
2013年
3期
91~97
,共null页
引力模型 中欧贸易 贸易流量 贸易不平衡
引力模型 中歐貿易 貿易流量 貿易不平衡
인력모형 중구무역 무역류량 무역불평형
gravity model of trade; EU-China trade; trade flows; trade imbalance
文章探讨了欧债危机视角下影响中欧贸易流量不平衡的因素,构建了中欧双边出口和进口贸易引力模型,并利用面板数据对中欧贸易流量的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：欧盟人均GDP的增加对双边贸易均产生显著的正向促进作用;我国人均GDP提高对进口影响显著,对出口影响并不显著;是否加入WTO对双边贸易均产生正向促进作用,但不显著。我国知识产权保护力度、人民币汇率升值对出口均产生负向冲击,对进口产生正向影响,但影响程度较小且不显著。在此基础上,文章提出了欧债危机下促进中欧贸易流量平衡的政策建议。
文章探討瞭歐債危機視角下影響中歐貿易流量不平衡的因素,構建瞭中歐雙邊齣口和進口貿易引力模型,併利用麵闆數據對中歐貿易流量的影響因素進行瞭實證分析。研究結果錶明：歐盟人均GDP的增加對雙邊貿易均產生顯著的正嚮促進作用;我國人均GDP提高對進口影響顯著,對齣口影響併不顯著;是否加入WTO對雙邊貿易均產生正嚮促進作用,但不顯著。我國知識產權保護力度、人民幣彙率升值對齣口均產生負嚮遲擊,對進口產生正嚮影響,但影響程度較小且不顯著。在此基礎上,文章提齣瞭歐債危機下促進中歐貿易流量平衡的政策建議。
문장탐토료구채위궤시각하영향중구무역류량불평형적인소,구건료중구쌍변출구화진구무역인력모형,병이용면판수거대중구무역류량적영향인소진행료실증분석。연구결과표명：구맹인균GDP적증가대쌍변무역균산생현저적정향촉진작용;아국인균GDP제고대진구영향현저,대출구영향병불현저;시부가입WTO대쌍변무역균산생정향촉진작용,단불현저。아국지식산권보호력도、인민폐회솔승치대출구균산생부향충격,대진구산생정향영향,단영향정도교소차불현저。재차기출상,문장제출료구채위궤하촉진중구무역류량평형적정책건의。
This paper discusses the determinants of the trade flows between EU and China from the prospective of European Debt Crisis,builds export and import gravity models of the trade between China and EU,and conducts an experimental analysis to the trade flows between China and EU by using panel data（1991-2010）.The results show that the increase of GDP per capital of EU has significantly positive influence on the bilateral trade,the increase of GDP per capital of China doesn＇t have the distinct influence on the bilateral trade,the entry of WTO has a positive effect on the bilateral trade,though insignificant.Based on the research results,we put forward some suggestions on how to promote the trade flow balance between China and EU under Europe Debt Crisis.
