当代经济管理
噹代經濟管理
당대경제관리
Contemporary Economic Management
2013年
3期
1~8
,共null页
过度投资 经济周期 VEC模型
過度投資 經濟週期 VEC模型
과도투자 경제주기 VEC모형
excessive investment; economic cycle; VEC model
2008年金融危机后，我国采取投资拉动策略复苏经济，然而投资规模是否过度一直是实务界和经济学界争论的焦点。本研究采用实际GDP增长率、资本形成总额、银行部门提供的国内信贷、外国直接投资净流入、市场资本总额和CPI作为系统关键变量，通过VEC模型分析投资对经济周期的影响，根据对未来经济周期指标的预测判断我国目前是否存在过度投资，并提出将投资增长率、信贷增长率、股市市值增长率分别稳定在17％、18％和32％的政策建议。
2008年金融危機後，我國採取投資拉動策略複囌經濟，然而投資規模是否過度一直是實務界和經濟學界爭論的焦點。本研究採用實際GDP增長率、資本形成總額、銀行部門提供的國內信貸、外國直接投資淨流入、市場資本總額和CPI作為繫統關鍵變量，通過VEC模型分析投資對經濟週期的影響，根據對未來經濟週期指標的預測判斷我國目前是否存在過度投資，併提齣將投資增長率、信貸增長率、股市市值增長率分彆穩定在17％、18％和32％的政策建議。
2008년금융위궤후，아국채취투자랍동책략복소경제，연이투자규모시부과도일직시실무계화경제학계쟁론적초점。본연구채용실제GDP증장솔、자본형성총액、은행부문제공적국내신대、외국직접투자정류입、시장자본총액화CPI작위계통관건변량，통과VEC모형분석투자대경제주기적영향，근거대미래경제주기지표적예측판단아국목전시부존재과도투자，병제출장투자증장솔、신대증장솔、고시시치증장솔분별은정재17％、18％화32％적정책건의。
After the financial crisis in 2008, China has adopted the investment-led strategy for economic recovery. However, whether the investment scale is excessive has long been the focus of debate in economic and practical fields. This study, adopting real GDP growth rate, gross capital formation, the domestic credit provided by the banking sector, net inflow of foreign direct investment, market capitalization and CPI as the key system variables, analyzes the impact of investment on economic cycle by using VEC model and judges whether China has excessive investment at present based on the forecasts of future economic cycle index, followed by the policy proposals that the growth rate in investment, credit and value of stock markets should remain stable at 17%, 18% and 32% respectively.
