CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据要素供给和市场需求的空间分布构建城市供求潜力指标，估计我国284个地级及以上城市的供求潜力，分析和评价我国城市经济规模。研究发现，不同地区发展潜力差距明显，潜力较大的城市在空间上连片分布；城市供求潜力以重点城市和主要城市群为依托按点一线一面依次推进；我国城市系统空间分布与城市供求潜力显著关联。分析还表明，许多特大和大城市可能已经出现集聚不经济，而大批中小规模的地级城市则有尚未利用的发展潜力。本研究提供了新的统计测度，研究结果可为各地区制定区域发展战略、选择优先发展城市、因地制宜推进城市化提供参考。
본문근거요소공급화시장수구적공간분포구건성시공구잠력지표，고계아국284개지급급이상성시적공구잠력，분석화평개아국성시경제규모。연구발현，불동지구발전잠력차거명현，잠력교대적성시재공간상련편분포；성시공구잠력이중점성시화주요성시군위의탁안점일선일면의차추진；아국성시계통공간분포여성시공구잠력현저관련。분석환표명，허다특대화대성시가능이경출현집취불경제，이대비중소규모적지급성시칙유상미이용적발전잠력。본연구제공료신적통계측도，연구결과가위각지구제정구역발전전략、선택우선발전성시、인지제의추진성시화제공삼고。
Based on the spatial distribution of factor supply and market demand, this paper constructs urban supply- demand potential indexes, estimates the potentials of 284 cities, and analyzes the economic scales of these cities. The study finds that the supply-demand potentials substantially differ across regions, and the cities with higher potentials are contiguously distributed; the supply-demand potentials gradually extent from megacities and city groups to cities along major traffic corridors and further to cities in more extensive areas; the spatial pattern of China＇ s urban system is significantly correlated to the supply-demand potentials. The analysis also reveals that agglomeration diseconomies have appeared in megacities while unrealized potentials exist in many smaller cities. This research provides new statistical measures and the findings provide references to develop regional economic policy, choose cities with potentials, and promote regional urbanization.