CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化是导致干旱区居民生计脆弱性的重要原因之一。构建生计脆弱性指标（Livelihood Vulnerability Index，LVI—IPCC）可以评估气候变化对干旱地区居民生计的影响。根据IPCC定义气候变化脆弱性的三个特征，选择新疆、宁夏两个典型干旱省份，调查社会人口指标、生计情况、社会关系网络、健康、食品、饮水安全、自然灾害和气候变化等数据，用复合指标和脆弱性指标进行对比分析。结果表明，宁夏在水资源、健康等方面的脆弱性更为明显，而新疆在社会关系、自然灾害和气候变化等方面更为脆弱。这种实证方法可用于被监测脆弱性，在缺乏地区性数据时检验某种政策的有效性。
기후변화시도치간한구거민생계취약성적중요원인지일。구건생계취약성지표（Livelihood Vulnerability Index，LVI—IPCC）가이평고기후변화대간한지구거민생계적영향。근거IPCC정의기후변화취약성적삼개특정，선택신강、저하량개전형간한성빈，조사사회인구지표、생계정황、사회관계망락、건강、식품、음수안전、자연재해화기후변화등수거，용복합지표화취약성지표진행대비분석。결과표명，저하재수자원、건강등방면적취약성경위명현，이신강재사회관계、자연재해화기후변화등방면경위취약。저충실증방법가용우피감측취약성，재결핍지구성수거시검험모충정책적유효성。
Climate change is an important cause of arid area residents livelihood vulnerability. LVI-IPCC can assess the impacts of climate change on living in arid area residents. According to the IPCC definition the three characteristics of of climate change vulnerability, the author chooses Xinjiang, Ningxia two typical arid provinces, investigates social indicators of the population, living conditions, social networks, health, food, drinking water security, natural disasters and climate change ect. data, and uses the composite index and vulnerability index analyzed. The results show that, Ningxia in water resources, health ect.sides, vulnerability is more obvious, and Xinjiang in the social relations, natural disasters and other aspects of climate change is more fragile. The empirical method can be used for monitoring vulnerability, test of the effectiveness of a policy in the lack of regional data.