中国工业经济
中國工業經濟
중국공업경제
China Industrial Economy
2013年
4期
30~42
,共null页
替代弹性 能源结构调整 产业结构调整
替代彈性 能源結構調整 產業結構調整
체대탄성 능원결구조정 산업결구조정
elasticity of substitution; energy structure adjustment; industrial structure adjustment
调整产业结构和能源结构是中国转变经济增长模式的两个关键路径。然而．其可行性取决于能源与要素以及能源间的可替代性。本文运用超对数成本函数和AES替代弹性估算了中国要素间（资本、劳动、能源）以及能源间（煤炭、石油、电力）的相关替代弹性。结果表明，中国能源间的替代、互补效应较弱，能源的自价格弹性亦很低：而劳动对能源的替代性较强，资本和能源之间先替代后互补。因此，应建立以市场化价格机制为核心的能源替代战略，以及依托于发展低碳产业和节能产业的产业结构调整和优化来实现经济增长模式转变。
調整產業結構和能源結構是中國轉變經濟增長模式的兩箇關鍵路徑。然而．其可行性取決于能源與要素以及能源間的可替代性。本文運用超對數成本函數和AES替代彈性估算瞭中國要素間（資本、勞動、能源）以及能源間（煤炭、石油、電力）的相關替代彈性。結果錶明，中國能源間的替代、互補效應較弱，能源的自價格彈性亦很低：而勞動對能源的替代性較彊，資本和能源之間先替代後互補。因此，應建立以市場化價格機製為覈心的能源替代戰略，以及依託于髮展低碳產業和節能產業的產業結構調整和優化來實現經濟增長模式轉變。
조정산업결구화능원결구시중국전변경제증장모식적량개관건로경。연이．기가행성취결우능원여요소이급능원간적가체대성。본문운용초대수성본함수화AES체대탄성고산료중국요소간（자본、노동、능원）이급능원간（매탄、석유、전력）적상관체대탄성。결과표명，중국능원간적체대、호보효응교약，능원적자개격탄성역흔저：이노동대능원적체대성교강，자본화능원지간선체대후호보。인차，응건립이시장화개격궤제위핵심적능원체대전략，이급의탁우발전저탄산업화절능산업적산업결구조정화우화래실현경제증장모식전변。
The critical paths of the transformation of the economic growth model in China are the industrial structure and the energy structure adjustment, however, its feasibility depends on substitutability between energy and factors, one kind of energy and another. This paper estimated the elasticity of substitution between factors （capital, labor, energy） and between energies （coal, petroleum, and electric power） using Translog cost function and AES elasticity of substitution. The results argue that the effects of substitution and complementary between energies are low, and price elasticity of energy demand is very low while the substitution of labor to energy is significant, the relationship between capital and energy is substitute in several yeas, but complement after then. Therefore, our suggestions are that energy substitution strategies should be established by market mechanism, and the model transformation of the economic growth should be fulfilled by developing low carbon industry and energy- saving industries to adjust and optimize industrial structure.
