CAJ | 학술논문

在教育经济学研究领域，传统的教育选择研究文献往往假定个体只考虑教育收益，忽视了投资风险的真实存在。已有文献对教育选择行为的预期假定存在较大差异，强加在个体身上的假定可能导致对教育选择行为的不正确推论，而使用个体主观预期数据替代这些假定能更准确地分析个体教育决策行为。采用2007年在北京六所高校所做的“研究生教育态度的调查”，利用预期收入、风险数据对北京高校大学生的研究生教育选择问题进行的实证研究发现，预期收入对选择研究生教育有显著影响，而风险对教育选择的影响却不尽相同：收入风险对于教育选择的影响不明显，主观风险对选择研究生教育则有负效应。此外，还发现就业率是大学生决定是否进一步接受教育的重要因素，所学专业就业率越高，选择继续接受研究生教育的愿望越小。上述研究结果暗示，政府相关部门应定期公布劳动力市场数据，便于大学毕业生对收入和就业状况形成合理预期，从而对未来的教育作出理性选择，有效发挥人力资本的作用。
재교육경제학연구영역，전통적교육선택연구문헌왕왕가정개체지고필교육수익，홀시료투자풍험적진실존재。이유문헌대교육선택행위적예기가정존재교대차이，강가재개체신상적가정가능도치대교육선택행위적불정학추론，이사용개체주관예기수거체대저사가정능경준학지분석개체교육결책행위。채용2007년재북경륙소고교소주적“연구생교육태도적조사”，이용예기수입、풍험수거대북경고교대학생적연구생교육선택문제진행적실증연구발현，예기수입대선택연구생교육유현저영향，이풍험대교육선택적영향각불진상동：수입풍험대우교육선택적영향불명현，주관풍험대선택연구생교육칙유부효응。차외，환발현취업솔시대학생결정시부진일보접수교육적중요인소，소학전업취업솔월고，선택계속접수연구생교육적원망월소。상술연구결과암시，정부상관부문응정기공포노동력시장수거，편우대학필업생대수입화취업상황형성합리예기，종이대미래적교육작출이성선택，유효발휘인력자본적작용。
Traditional research about people＇s educational investment only focused on benefit from education but ignored the risk. There are differences in expectation hypothesis about educational choice in the literature. Hypothesis imposed on in- dividuals might lead to incorrect inferences, as researchers decided the key elements from variable individual information with out knowing their thought. Thus, using individual expectation data might have more real results than the hypothesis. This pa- per investigated the postgraduate attendance decision on wage expectations, and risk from the data of＂attitudes to the post-- graduate education survey＂in 2007. The results showed that the expectations significantly affect the students＇educational choice, but the reflection from risk to educational choice were different, which are earning risk does not influence postgraduate attendance decision and subjective risk has significant negative effect.