CAJ | 학술논문

本文在对M2／GDP指标适用性进行分析的基础上，通过M2／GDP指标的国际比较发现：第一，M2／GDP并非判断一国是否“货币超发”的准确指标。经济货币化进程的推进、金融结构的变迁和中央银行货币政策调控都是影响M2／GDP指标的因素。第二，中央银行无法很好地控制货币乘数和货币流通速度，从而无法很好地控制最终的货币供应量；同时，金融创新的发展和金融脱媒，也进一步加剧了货币供应与经济增长之间关系的不稳定性。第三，有关我国M2增速合理区间的经验公式已逐渐失效，需要进行重新评估。
본문재대M2／GDP지표괄용성진행분석적기출상，통과M2／GDP지표적국제비교발현：제일，M2／GDP병비판단일국시부“화폐초발”적준학지표。경제화폐화진정적추진、금융결구적변천화중앙은행화폐정책조공도시영향M2／GDP지표적인소。제이，중앙은행무법흔호지공제화폐승수화화폐류통속도，종이무법흔호지공제최종적화폐공응량；동시，금융창신적발전화금융탈매，야진일보가극료화폐공응여경제증장지간관계적불은정성。제삼，유관아국M2증속합리구간적경험공식이축점실효，수요진행중신평고。
Based on an analysis of the applicability of M2/GDP, this paper makes an international comparison of the index and draws the following conclusions： Firstly, M2/GDP is not a unique index in judging whether a country over-issues its money. Other factors include process of economic monetization, changes in the financial structure and monetary policy adjustments by the central bank. Secondly, lack of adequate control over money muhiplier and velocity of money, the central bank can not fully control the ultimate money supply. Meanwhile, financial innovation and disintermediation also lead to an increasingly volatile relationship between money supply and economic growth. Thirdly, the existing formula that measures the rational range of China＇s M2 growth is gradually losing its validity and in need of revaluation.