CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于SITC Rev.3至5位码下2600多种制成品出口数据,测算了1993-2010年我国制成品出口显示附加值指数。首先对我国出口技术结构进行了定量分析,然后通过动态面板数据模型验证了出口技术结构变化与变迁与经济增长的关系,得出如下结论：（1）我国制成品出口的多样性与出口技术复杂度提升对GDP增长的贡献并不大,作为一个贸易大国,我国通过出口范围的广化与出口技术复杂度的提升,促进经济增长的良性机制并未充分形成;（2）低技术制成品与中等以上技术制成品均不构成推动我国经济增长的主要种类,我国面临跳出＂中等收入陷阱＂的挑战;（3）制成品出口技术结构的提升能够显著地促进经济增长,那些步入开发更高技术复杂度产品出口的国家或地区,能够从参与全球化中获得更多的贸易利益,并实现更快的经济增长。最后,本文提出了我国实现出口技术结构升级和跨越中等收入阶段的几点建议。
본문기우SITC Rev.3지5위마하2600다충제성품출구수거,측산료1993-2010년아국제성품출구현시부가치지수。수선대아국출구기술결구진행료정량분석,연후통과동태면판수거모형험증료출구기술결구변화여변천여경제증장적관계,득출여하결론：（1）아국제성품출구적다양성여출구기술복잡도제승대GDP증장적공헌병불대,작위일개무역대국,아국통과출구범위적엄화여출구기술복잡도적제승,촉진경제증장적량성궤제병미충분형성;（2）저기술제성품여중등이상기술제성품균불구성추동아국경제증장적주요충류,아국면림도출＂중등수입함정＂적도전;（3）제성품출구기술결구적제승능구현저지촉진경제증장,나사보입개발경고기술복잡도산품출구적국가혹지구,능구종삼여전구화중획득경다적무역이익,병실현경쾌적경제증장。최후,본문제출료아국실현출구기술결구승급화과월중등수입계단적궤점건의。
Export product diversity and export product technical complexity may have important impact on China＇s foreign trade growth and economic growth,according to the Hummles et al.（2005） and Hidalgo,Hausman’s（2009） research.Export products with different technical complexity show different economic performance.If a nation possesses export high technical complexity products,its economic performance will be better.Using SITC5 digital 2600 kinds of manufactured export products data of China during 1993-2010,the article calculates revealed technological value-added index of manufactured products and then analyzes the impact of different technical complexity manufactured export goods on economic growth through the dynamic panel data model.Results show that there are significant correlation between upgrading of manufactured export goods technical complexity and the economic growth of China.But the results of the empirical analysis shows,although the contribution ratio of Chinese manufactured goods＇ diversity and complexity to economic growth becomes increasingly stronger,it is not very high.As a trading nation,China has not fully formed benign mechanism to promote the growth by diversity of export and upgrading of export technical complexity.Manufactured goods of low technology and above medium technology do not constitute the main resources of promoting China’s economic growth.There are risks that China has to fall into ＂the middle income trap＂.Based on above conclusion,we arrive at the suggestions on how to promote the diversity of Chinese export and technical structure upgrading and how to cross the stage of middle income.