CAJ | 학술논문

本文以UN Comtrade数据库中SITC（Rev.3）五分位商品的贸易数据为依据,以22个发达国家（地区）、11个发展中国家为比较对象,通过构建两个基于出口国内增值的新型指标,即出口净相似度指数和出口净技术复杂度指数,实证考察了近十年中国出口复杂度的变化及当前所处的相对地位。研究发现：扣除了出口中所含的进口中间投入品的附加值后,中国的出口复杂度出现了一定程度的下降,表明原测度方法下中国的出口复杂度被高估;虽然近十年中国的净相似度指数和净技术复杂度指数均有所增长,但横向比较表明中国的出口复杂度并没有像Rodrik（2006）等所指出的那样乐观,中国仍明显属于发展中国家行列,而且与美国等主要发达国家的技术差距无明显收敛趋势,中国出口的技术升级和赶超仍充满挑战。
본문이UN Comtrade수거고중SITC（Rev.3）오분위상품적무역수거위의거,이22개발체국가（지구）、11개발전중국가위비교대상,통과구건량개기우출구국내증치적신형지표,즉출구정상사도지수화출구정기술복잡도지수,실증고찰료근십년중국출구복잡도적변화급당전소처적상대지위。연구발현：구제료출구중소함적진구중간투입품적부가치후,중국적출구복잡도출현료일정정도적하강,표명원측도방법하중국적출구복잡도피고고;수연근십년중국적정상사도지수화정기술복잡도지수균유소증장,단횡향비교표명중국적출구복잡도병몰유상Rodrik（2006）등소지출적나양악관,중국잉명현속우발전중국가행렬,이차여미국등주요발체국가적기술차거무명현수렴추세,중국출구적기술승급화간초잉충만도전。
By using SITC（Rev.3） 5-digit trade data from UN Comtrade Database,this paper analyzes empirically the movement during last ten years and the current relative level of China’s Export Sophistication compared with 22 developed countries and 11 developing countries by designing two new indices,namely Net Export Similarity Index and Net Technological Sophistication Index,based on domestic value-added of exports.This paper finds： after taking away the importing value-added of intermediate goods from exports,the China’s export sophistication indices fell to a certain extent;although during the last ten years China’s export sophistication increased slowly,different from the optimistic findings of Rodrik（2006）,China’s export sophistication still lags behind developed countries just like many other developing countries;furthermore,the technical gap is not becoming certainly convergent between China and the main developed countries such as USA,so the upgrading and catching-up of the technological contents of China’s exports is full of challenges and uncertainties.