CAJ | 학술논문

文章根据日销售额的节假日特征,提出我国居民消费序列季节调整的新方案,并运用季节调整结果分析我国居民消费的增长和波动。研究表明：在新方案中增加移动假日效应和工作日效应后,不仅能充分提取原始序列的季节成分和节假日效应成分,而且可以有效监测居民消费的增长和波动。原始序列的分解结果表明,我国居民消费的趋势循环成分持续稳步增长、季节波动模式基本保持稳定、不规则成分平稳随机变动。基于新季节调整方案得到的环比数据可以及时发现经济指标的转折点,因此更适宜于对居民消费进行实时监测。
문장근거일소수액적절가일특정,제출아국거민소비서렬계절조정적신방안,병운용계절조정결과분석아국거민소비적증장화파동。연구표명：재신방안중증가이동가일효응화공작일효응후,불부능충분제취원시서렬적계절성분화절가일효응성분,이차가이유효감측거민소비적증장화파동。원시서렬적분해결과표명,아국거민소비적추세순배성분지속은보증장、계절파동모식기본보지은정、불규칙성분평은수궤변동。기우신계절조정방안득도적배비수거가이급시발현경제지표적전절점,인차경괄의우대거민소비진행실시감측。
Based on the holiday features in daily data of retail sales,this paper propose a new scheme for seasonal adjust ment,and analysis the growth and fluctuation of household consumption.Taking into account the effect of moving holidays and working days,the new proposal not only can capture various seasonal and holiday effects entirely,but also can monitor the growth and fluctuation of household consumption.As a result of seasonal adjustment,household consumption is broken down into three components.Trend-circle component grows fairly steadily.Seasonal effect is reasonably stable in terms of an nual timing and direction.Irregular component is a random process with constant mean.On the basis of seasonal adjustment series,month-to-month percent change is obtained,which is appropriate for real-time monitoring.