CAJ | 학술논문

区域民间金融风险已经成为近年来金融当局关注的重点问题，而如何评估和计量区域民间金融风险则成为理论界研究的难题。本文以浙江省11个地级市的2083个民间借贷案例为基础，通过数据挖掘，设计了反映区域民间金融风险的规模风险与利率风险指标，并构建了区域民间金融风险的probit与ARMA预警模型。实证研究发现，2008年民间金融风险主要由规模风险所导致；2010年和2011年，民间金融风险则由利率风险与规模风险共同促成。预测结果表明，2013年浙江省民间金融风险主要集中在规模风险方面，采取适度宽松的信贷政策将有助于降低2013年下半年可能出现的民间借贷风险。
구역민간금융풍험이경성위근년래금융당국관주적중점문제，이여하평고화계량구역민간금융풍험칙성위이론계연구적난제。본문이절강성11개지급시적2083개민간차대안례위기출，통과수거알굴，설계료반영구역민간금융풍험적규모풍험여리솔풍험지표，병구건료구역민간금융풍험적probit여ARMA예경모형。실증연구발현，2008년민간금융풍험주요유규모풍험소도치；2010년화2011년，민간금융풍험칙유리솔풍험여규모풍험공동촉성。예측결과표명，2013년절강성민간금융풍험주요집중재규모풍험방면，채취괄도관송적신대정책장유조우강저2013년하반년가능출현적민간차대풍험。
The regional financial risk of informal finance has been one of the main concerns of the financial authorities. And it is still an open question on how to measure and estimate it. This paper designs the scale risk in-dex and the interest rate risk index of private lending as two indicators, and develops a risk pre-warning model based on the Probit and ARMA models by investigating 2083 cases of private lending in 11 cities of Zhejiang Prov-ince. Our empirical research finds that in 2008 the informal financial risk was mainly caused by the scale risk; in 2010-2011, it was caused by both scale and interest rate risks. This paper predicts that in 2013 the informal fi-nancial risk in Zhejiang Province will be mainly caused by scale risk. Therefore, an appropriate loose credit policy is helpful to reduce the informal financial risk in the second half of 2013.