CAJ | 학술논문

本文构建了一个包含商业和房地产两个部门的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型，运用贝叶斯估计模型的参数，考察了中国房地产价格和产量（数量）波动的机制。结果显示：（1）货币政策、房地产需求偏好、房地产部门技术、房地产部门工资加成的冲击能够解释大部分房价波动，其中，货币政策冲击能够解释约60％，可见货币政策是我国房地产价格波动的主要来源；（2）房地产部门技术、房地产部门工资加成、货币政策的冲击能够解释约95％房地产产量波动；（3）证明了中国最优货币政策的制定可以采用温和地盯住房地产价格波动的方式。
본문구건료일개포함상업화방지산량개부문적신개은사주의DSGE모형，운용패협사고계모형적삼수，고찰료중국방지산개격화산량（수량）파동적궤제。결과현시：（1）화폐정책、방지산수구편호、방지산부문기술、방지산부문공자가성적충격능구해석대부분방개파동，기중，화폐정책충격능구해석약60％，가견화폐정책시아국방지산개격파동적주요래원；（2）방지산부문기술、방지산부문공자가성、화폐정책적충격능구해석약95％방지산산량파동；（3）증명료중국최우화폐정책적제정가이채용온화지정주방지산개격파동적방식。
This paper develops a New - Keynesian DSGE of a two - sector model that describes the price and quantity side of the China＇s housing market, using Bayesian method to estimate model parameters. The results displays the following features： first, monetary policy shocks, housing preference shocks, technological shocks in housing sector and wage mark - up shocks account for a large fraction of the fluctuations in house prices, and moreover, monetary policy itself can illustrate about 60 percent, which is the most main sources of the fluctuations in house prices; second, technological shocks in housing sector, wage mark -up shoeks and monetary policy account for about 95 percent of the fluctuations in house quantity; third, the optimal monetary policy in China mildly pegs volatility of housing prices.