CAJ | 학술논문

未来中国劳动人口态势呈现总量负增长、构成老化、人口红利消失等新格局，导致劳动力“相对短缺”、“结构性短缺”等常态化、尖锐化。其对中国宏观经济发展的潜在影响将呈现多元、复杂化，但因经济体制“改革红利”和大国经济模式等外在因素的干预，至少在2030年前不会形成难以承受的全局性劳动人口危机；因人口城市化影响，劳动人口新格局对局地经济发展，或将有助于“倒逼”特定行业、产业升级与转型；也或导致青年劳动力严重短缺、老年劳动力绝对过剩等就业格局．形成真实的局域性劳动人口危机。
미래중국노동인구태세정현총량부증장、구성노화、인구홍리소실등신격국，도치노동력“상대단결”、“결구성단결”등상태화、첨예화。기대중국굉관경제발전적잠재영향장정현다원、복잡화，단인경제체제“개혁홍리”화대국경제모식등외재인소적간예，지소재2030년전불회형성난이승수적전국성노동인구위궤；인인구성시화영향，노동인구신격국대국지경제발전，혹장유조우“도핍”특정행업、산업승급여전형；야혹도치청년노동력엄중단결、노년노동력절대과잉등취업격국．형성진실적국역성노동인구위궤。
Chinese population is experiencing new-period, which Labor＇s quantity is decreasing, labor＇s structure is aging. Chinese macro-economic developing will frequently be in relative shortage of labor force. Problem of labor force will be evolving by fierce, multivariate and complex way. Because of large-scale macro-economic developing, dividends which is caused by Chinese economic system＇s reform, and other non-demographic factors influence, overall labor crises may not happen before 2030 in china. Only in some areas, some industries will confront real labor crisis. Most crises can be solved by industry upgrade, or by industry transformation; the other crises should be handle by common policy. Especially in regional level Labor problem, such as young labor great-shortage, industry flow-away caused by labor force fiercely emigrate should be tackled accordingly.