CAJ | 학술논문

能源结构优化是实现广东省“十二五”碳强度目标的有效措施之一。为评估能源结构优化对广东省碳强度目标实现的贡献潜力，本文首先运用情景预测、成分数据模型、GM（1，1）模型等多学科方法预测了2011-2015年广东省碳强度趋势．然后分27个组合情景评估了能源结构优化对实现广东省碳强度目标的贡献潜力。结果表明：在理想情景（经济高速增长、能源消费量强化控制且能源结构大幅调整）下．2015年碳强度相对2010年下降19．37％，能源结构优化对实现碳强度目标的贡献潜力最大，达到99．33％；即使在保守情景（经济中速增长、能源消费量适度控制且能源结构小幅调整）下，2015年碳强度相对2010年也将下降2．66％，能源结构优化对实现碳强度目标的贡献潜力也会达到13.65％。广东省仅靠能源结构优化无法实现碳强度目标，若能系统性采取一系列对策。则完全可能实现广东省碳强度目标。
능원결구우화시실현광동성“십이오”탄강도목표적유효조시지일。위평고능원결구우화대광동성탄강도목표실현적공헌잠력，본문수선운용정경예측、성분수거모형、GM（1，1）모형등다학과방법예측료2011-2015년광동성탄강도추세．연후분27개조합정경평고료능원결구우화대실현광동성탄강도목표적공헌잠력。결과표명：재이상정경（경제고속증장、능원소비량강화공제차능원결구대폭조정）하．2015년탄강도상대2010년하강19．37％，능원결구우화대실현탄강도목표적공헌잠력최대，체도99．33％；즉사재보수정경（경제중속증장、능원소비량괄도공제차능원결구소폭조정）하，2015년탄강도상대2010년야장하강2．66％，능원결구우화대실현탄강도목표적공헌잠력야회체도13.65％。광동성부고능원결구우화무법실현탄강도목표，약능계통성채취일계렬대책。칙완전가능실현광동성탄강도목표。
Optimizing energy structure is one of the effective measures to achieve the carbon intensity target of Guangdong Province＇s Twelfth Five Year Plan. In view of potential assessment of optimizing energy structure to carbon intensity target in Guangdong Province, this paper first uses multidisciplinary methods including scenarios analysis, composition data model and GM （1,1） model to predict the trend of Guangdong Province＇s carbon intensity during the period 2011 to 2015, and then assesses the contribution of improving energy structure to carbon intensity target in twenty-seven scenarios. The main conclusion shows： In the ideal scenario that economy grows at a high speed, energy consumption is strictly controlled and energy structure is significantly adjusted; carbon intensity in 2015 will decrease by 19.37% compared to that of 2010, which will make 99.33% of contribution to the achievement of the carbon intensity target. In the conservative scenario that economy grows at a medium speed, energy consumption is moderately controlled and energy structure is slightly adjusted,carbon intensity in 2015 will decrease by 2.66% compared to that of 2010, which will make 13.65% of contribution to the achievement of the carbon intensity target of Guangdong Province. Guangdong Province can not realize the carbon intensity target only by energy structure optimization. If a series of systematic countermeasures are taken, Guangdong Province will belikely to realize its carbon intensity target.