经济与管理
經濟與管理
경제여관리
Economy and Management
2013年
4期
36~41
,共null页
宏观经济和金融总量 增长路径 结构变化 拟可行广义最小二乘法
宏觀經濟和金融總量 增長路徑 結構變化 擬可行廣義最小二乘法
굉관경제화금융총량 증장로경 결구변화 의가행엄의최소이승법
Macroeconomic and financial variables; Growth path; Structural changes; Quasi-Feasible generalized least squaresprocedure
运用Perron和Yabu（2009）提出的拟可行广义最小二乘法（Quasi—FGLS），对我国有代表性的宏观经济和金融总量的增长路径是否存在结构变化进行检验。实证表明，除银行贷款外，其余9个总量（储蓄存款余额、固定资产投资GDP、人均GDP、就业、消费、进出口、名义工资总额和实际工资总额）的增长路径均发生结构变化，潜在增长率在结构断点前后明显改变，但这种变动有增有减，其中就业和居民消费的变化表现出明显的同步性。区别于以往检验方法，Quasi—FGLS结构变化检验结果不受残差平稳性影响，因此结论更加稳健。
運用Perron和Yabu（2009）提齣的擬可行廣義最小二乘法（Quasi—FGLS），對我國有代錶性的宏觀經濟和金融總量的增長路徑是否存在結構變化進行檢驗。實證錶明，除銀行貸款外，其餘9箇總量（儲蓄存款餘額、固定資產投資GDP、人均GDP、就業、消費、進齣口、名義工資總額和實際工資總額）的增長路徑均髮生結構變化，潛在增長率在結構斷點前後明顯改變，但這種變動有增有減，其中就業和居民消費的變化錶現齣明顯的同步性。區彆于以往檢驗方法，Quasi—FGLS結構變化檢驗結果不受殘差平穩性影響，因此結論更加穩健。
운용Perron화Yabu（2009）제출적의가행엄의최소이승법（Quasi—FGLS），대아국유대표성적굉관경제화금융총량적증장로경시부존재결구변화진행검험。실증표명，제은행대관외，기여9개총량（저축존관여액、고정자산투자GDP、인균GDP、취업、소비、진출구、명의공자총액화실제공자총액）적증장로경균발생결구변화，잠재증장솔재결구단점전후명현개변，단저충변동유증유감，기중취업화거민소비적변화표현출명현적동보성。구별우이왕검험방법，Quasi—FGLS결구변화검험결과불수잔차평은성영향，인차결론경가은건。
The quasi-feasible generalized least squares procedure proposed by Perron and Yabu （2009）is applied to test structural changes in the growth paths of major macroeconomic and financial variables of China. Compared with other structural break detecting procedures, the advantage of the method utilized is that the empirical result is independent of the natural of noise component, so the conclusions can be more robust. The empirical evidence reveals that except for banking loan, structural changes occur in the growth paths of the other nine variables, including upwards and downwards movements and the potential growth rates change significantly. Besides, employment and consumption display significant synchronicity. Furthermore, the shocks of vital events and policies to economic operation are studied, and the underlying mechanism in the economic chain and the implications of the inconsistent movements are analyzed. Different from the previous test methods, Quasi-FGI.S structural changes in test results from the residuals smooth conclusion, which is more robust.
