CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用状态空间模型，选取2005年8月至2012年6月的月度数据，检验了人民币在116个经济体汇率安排中的作用，并以所估计的人民币货币锚效应的时变系数，分析了影响人民币锚货币职能发挥的主要因素。结果表明：目前人民币已成为21个经济体的主要参考货币；在所测度的116个经济体中，人民币的影响力已超过英镑，并与日元等同。在人民币锚货币职能的影响因素方面，贸易一体化效应是主导力量，相对贸易竞争力和国内金融部门发展差异性对人民币影响力的提升具有显著的促进作用，而贸易条件冲击差异性越大，越不利于人民币影响力的提升。基于这一结论，本文提出了进一步发挥人民币锚货币职能的策略与措施。
본문운용상태공간모형，선취2005년8월지2012년6월적월도수거，검험료인민폐재116개경제체회솔안배중적작용，병이소고계적인민폐화폐묘효응적시변계수，분석료영향인민폐묘화폐직능발휘적주요인소。결과표명：목전인민폐이성위21개경제체적주요삼고화폐；재소측도적116개경제체중，인민폐적영향력이초과영방，병여일원등동。재인민폐묘화폐직능적영향인소방면，무역일체화효응시주도역량，상대무역경쟁력화국내금융부문발전차이성대인민폐영향력적제승구유현저적촉진작용，이무역조건충격차이성월대，월불리우인민폐영향력적제승。기우저일결론，본문제출료진일보발휘인민폐묘화폐직능적책략여조시。
This paper uses state space model and selects monthly data which range from August 2005 to June 2012 to examine the role of the RMB in exchange rate arrangements of 116 economies; and analyzes main factors that affect the exertion of RMB＇s anchor currency function based on the estimated time variation index which measures RMB＇s currency anchor effect. The result shows that the RMB has been the main reference currency of 21 economies~ the influence of the RMB has exceed the pounds and been equivalent with yen in the 116 economies which are measured. Among all factors which impact RMB＇s anchor currency function, trade integration effect is the dominant force. Relative trade competitiveness and development discrepancy of domestic financial departments play significant roles in prompting RMB＇s impact. The greater difference of trade terms＇ shock, the less conducive to the enhancement of the impact of RMB. In response to this conclusion, this paper presents some strategies and measures to effectively promote further exertion of RMB＇s anchor currency function.