人口学刊
人口學刊
인구학간
Population Journal
2013年
3期
25~36
,共null页
王金营 石贝贝 李竞博 张辉
王金營 石貝貝 李競博 張輝
왕금영 석패패 리경박 장휘
人口素质 人口流动 人口年龄结构 人口活跃因素 经济增长
人口素質 人口流動 人口年齡結構 人口活躍因素 經濟增長
인구소질 인구류동 인구년령결구 인구활약인소 경제증장
the quality of population, the population flow, the age structure, the population active factor,the economic development
从30多年我国各地区的社会经济发展历程可看到一个事实，较发达地区人口在不断流入、人口素质在提高、人口年龄结构较为年轻且负担小。以人口素质、人口流动聚集、年龄结构等为表征量的人口活跃因素对经济发展的影响是不可忽视的。为了准确判定这三个人口因素在经济发展水平中的具体作用和对要素效率的影响，本文从多维度将三个因素综合为一个指标——人口活跃度指数，并将此指标引入生产函数，通过计量分析发现人口活跃因素无论内生作用于资本，还是内生作用于劳动力，对区域经济增长均有较大影响。表明人口活跃因素对经济发展水平不仅仅总体上有积极作用而且对于生产要素的效率有着显著影响。因而在未来区域经济增长和发展中要充分利用年轻化的人口年龄结构，促进区域人口有效流动，提高人口素质尤其劳动力人口素质。
從30多年我國各地區的社會經濟髮展歷程可看到一箇事實，較髮達地區人口在不斷流入、人口素質在提高、人口年齡結構較為年輕且負擔小。以人口素質、人口流動聚集、年齡結構等為錶徵量的人口活躍因素對經濟髮展的影響是不可忽視的。為瞭準確判定這三箇人口因素在經濟髮展水平中的具體作用和對要素效率的影響，本文從多維度將三箇因素綜閤為一箇指標——人口活躍度指數，併將此指標引入生產函數，通過計量分析髮現人口活躍因素無論內生作用于資本，還是內生作用于勞動力，對區域經濟增長均有較大影響。錶明人口活躍因素對經濟髮展水平不僅僅總體上有積極作用而且對于生產要素的效率有著顯著影響。因而在未來區域經濟增長和髮展中要充分利用年輕化的人口年齡結構，促進區域人口有效流動，提高人口素質尤其勞動力人口素質。
종30다년아국각지구적사회경제발전역정가간도일개사실，교발체지구인구재불단류입、인구소질재제고、인구년령결구교위년경차부담소。이인구소질、인구류동취집、년령결구등위표정량적인구활약인소대경제발전적영향시불가홀시적。위료준학판정저삼개인구인소재경제발전수평중적구체작용화대요소효솔적영향，본문종다유도장삼개인소종합위일개지표——인구활약도지수，병장차지표인입생산함수，통과계량분석발현인구활약인소무론내생작용우자본，환시내생작용우노동력，대구역경제증장균유교대영향。표명인구활약인소대경제발전수평불부부총체상유적겁작용이차대우생산요소적효솔유착현저영향。인이재미래구역경제증장화발전중요충분이용년경화적인구년령결구，촉진구역인구유효류동，제고인구소질우기노동력인구소질。
From the process of social and economic development in different areas of China in 30 years, it＇s easy to find the facts that the floating population is increasing ,the population quality is improving, and the age structure is younger and has a less burden in more advanced areas. It＇s not neglectful that among all the influential and determined factors of economic development, population is one of the most important variables,such as the quality of population,the population flow and the age structure. In order to judge these three population variables＇ effect on the economic and influence on the element＇s efficiency. We combine those three factors into a multi-dimensional index - population active factor,and introduce population active variables into the Douglas function. The results show that not only the population active variables have endogenous effect on the development of capital,but also the variables have exogenous effect on labor. It＇s a significant influence on the area economic growth. It makes clear that the population active variables have the active influence on the level of economic development. Also it markedly affects the element efficiency. In a word,making use of the young age structure,achieving balanced population float among different regions,and improving population quality could be three effective ways to improve the economic development in the future.
