CAJ | 학술논문

在我国，推进可持续发展思维模式转变已共识，然而，在宏观经济管理实践中需求引致增长的时空演化特征却往往被忽视。本研究基于时空加权回归方法对需求引致增长的局部结构效应进行识别，认为需要充分发挥“三大需求”结构转变的正效应。研究表明，中国区域经济发展不平衡且有时空异质性；消费显著失衡，存在以牺牲消费获取增长的发展路径依赖；东部长期保持相对较高的投资拉动增长的结构效应，富裕地区对贫穷地区的发展权利剥夺并未停止。
재아국，추진가지속발전사유모식전변이공식，연이，재굉관경제관리실천중수구인치증장적시공연화특정각왕왕피홀시。본연구기우시공가권회귀방법대수구인치증장적국부결구효응진행식별，인위수요충분발휘“삼대수구”결구전변적정효응。연구표명，중국구역경제발전불평형차유시공이질성；소비현저실형，존재이희생소비획취증장적발전로경의뢰；동부장기보지상대교고적투자랍동증장적결구효응，부유지구대빈궁지구적발전권리박탈병미정지。
Though sustainable development has become a consensus, relation ships between demands and growth which are of spatio-temporal variation is often been neglected in macroeconomic management practice. Based on geographically and temporally weighted regression, we capture the local demand effects and suggest that it is urgently needed to give full play to positive effects of demands＇ structure changes. Results show that regional unbalance and spatio-temporal heterogeneity have eharactered China＇s growth; unbalance is serious in consumption part, pursuing growth at the price of inhibiting consumption; a high economical efficiency of investment keeps in eastern region, exploitation from the rich to the poor does not stop. New prescription can be found in the torsion of demand structure to realize sustainable development.