CAJ | 학술논문

本文对比分析各种现有投资决策分析方法之后，得出基于Shackle模型的不确定条件下的旅游投资决策方法更适用于我国当前旅游投资分析的结论，同时通过蒙特卡洛仿真的方法分析了该方法的有效性。不同于基于风险的生命周期成本收益分析法，该方法不需要构建完整的收益概率模型，仅需估算收益分布范围就可以客观地对投资项目进行经济分析，因而更适用于我国当前的旅游投资决策分析。
본문대비분석각충현유투자결책분석방법지후，득출기우Shackle모형적불학정조건하적여유투자결책방법경괄용우아국당전여유투자분석적결론，동시통과몽특잡락방진적방법분석료해방법적유효성。불동우기우풍험적생명주기성본수익분석법，해방법불수요구건완정적수익개솔모형，부수고산수익분포범위취가이객관지대투자항목진행경제분석，인이경괄용우아국당전적여유투자결책분석。
The existing risk based Life-Cyde Cost Benefit Analysis needs adequate case data to construct the complete probability model for gain estimating. Unfortunately, there is not enough case data accumulated for the probability model construction. So, in this paper, a Shackle based tourism investment analysis method is introduced, and Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to validate the effectiveness of this analysis method. Unlike the risk based LCCBA, this method needn＇t the complete probability model construction, but only need correctly estimating the range of future gain of programs under consideration. Therefore, the Shackle based method is more suitable for current tourism investment analysis in China.