CAJ | 학술논문

本文从碳排放系数的角度推导了总量变化的SDA分解模型,从社会经济发展视角构建了LMDI分解公式,讨论不同时期碳排放量变化的影响因素。文章以云南省为例,运用云南省分行业能源消费数据以及4个年份的投入产出表进行实证分析。SDA计算结果表明：消费与投资扩张效应是碳排放增长的主要影响因素,碳排放强度变动效应是节能减排的源动力;LMDI分解结果表明：人均GDP增长是拉动云南省CO2排放增长的决定性因素,而能耗强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的主要原因。文章最后提出了低碳经济条件下云南省产业结构调整的方向。
본문종탄배방계수적각도추도료총량변화적SDA분해모형,종사회경제발전시각구건료LMDI분해공식,토론불동시기탄배방량변화적영향인소。문장이운남성위례,운용운남성분행업능원소비수거이급4개년빈적투입산출표진행실증분석。SDA계산결과표명：소비여투자확장효응시탄배방증장적주요영향인소,탄배방강도변동효응시절능감배적원동력;LMDI분해결과표명：인균GDP증장시랍동운남성CO2배방증장적결정성인소,이능모강도하강시억제탄배방증장적주요원인。문장최후제출료저탄경제조건하운남성산업결구조정적방향。
This paper derived the SDA model in terms of coefficient of carbon emissions, and established the LMD1 equations to analyze the impact factors for carbon changes in total. As an example, Yunnan Province is analyzed based on energy consumption data and four years input-output table. The results of SDA model shows that expansion effect of consumption and investment is a source of carbon emissions, and the changing effect of carbon intensity is the main measure to save energy and reduce emission. The results of LMDI show that the PGDP growth is the decisive factor in stimulating growth of CO2 emissions, and the decline of energy intensity is the most important factor to inhibit carbon emissions growth in Yunnan Province. In the last part, this paper provides the suggestions for the structure adjustment with low carbon economy system in Yunnan Province.