CAJ | 학술논문

航运业是资金密集型行业，具有周期性、高风险等特征。从宏观角度看，航运市场受宏观经济周期因素影响较大，这些因素通过影响航运业供求关系来影响航运企业的财务状况；从产业链角度看，航运业的产业关联复杂，从而财务压力在企业之间和产业链各环节间也存在传导性。本文以中国A股上市航运企业现金流状况的宏观周期性特征和产业链局部传导效应为研究对象，考察了一些具有重要影响的因素，包括航运金融舍约特征、产业链传导性、宏观经济指标等，并进行了量化分析，结果发现BDI是进出口总额增长率的原因，而其他指标之间不具有因果关系。
항운업시자금밀집형행업，구유주기성、고풍험등특정。종굉관각도간，항운시장수굉관경제주기인소영향교대，저사인소통과영향항운업공구관계래영향항운기업적재무상황；종산업련각도간，항운업적산업관련복잡，종이재무압력재기업지간화산업련각배절간야존재전도성。본문이중국A고상시항운기업현금류상황적굉관주기성특정화산업련국부전도효응위연구대상，고찰료일사구유중요영향적인소，포괄항운금융사약특정、산업련전도성、굉관경제지표등，병진행료양화분석，결과발현BDI시진출구총액증장솔적원인，이기타지표지간불구유인과관계。
The shipping industry is a capital-intensive industry with periodic and high-risk characteristics. From a macro-perspective, macroeconomic cycle factors influence supply-demand relationship of the industry, and then affect the financial conditions of shipping companies. From the perspective of industrial chains, the financial pressure of shipping enterprises has conductive effects between enterprises due to the complex industrial correlation. In this paper, with quantitative analysis, we investigate the macro periodical features of cash flow of the listed shipping companies in China＇ s A-share market and local conductive effects of industrial chains, and explore some factors including contract features, conduction of industry chain and macro-indicators of shipping industry, which concludes that BDI is the reason of the total export-import volume growth and other indexes have no cause-and-effect relationship.