CAJ | 학술논문

在成本传递和“部门转移效应”基础上，本文构建并检验了国际油价冲击对中国贸易条件的传导路径，同时利用VAR模型模拟了油价冲击的动态影响，最后分析了全球金融危机是否改变了油价对贸易条件的冲击效应。结果表明：（1）能源密集型产品与整体贸易条件的运动轨迹基本一致，先恶化后改善，最终收敛于0，但不管恶化还是改善，主要取决于外部因素的影响；（2）由于“部门转移”比较弱，非能源密集型产品的贸易条件改善，贸易福利虽有所提高，但仍会导致失业和资本闲置，从而扼杀社会经济长期健康的发展；（3）全球金融危机强化了能源密集型产品与整体贸易条件的运动轨迹，但削弱了国外的“部门转移效应”。
재성본전체화“부문전이효응”기출상，본문구건병검험료국제유개충격대중국무역조건적전도로경，동시이용VAR모형모의료유개충격적동태영향，최후분석료전구금융위궤시부개변료유개대무역조건적충격효응。결과표명：（1）능원밀집형산품여정체무역조건적운동궤적기본일치，선악화후개선，최종수렴우0，단불관악화환시개선，주요취결우외부인소적영향；（2）유우“부문전이”비교약，비능원밀집형산품적무역조건개선，무역복리수유소제고，단잉회도치실업화자본한치，종이액살사회경제장기건강적발전；（3）전구금융위궤강화료능원밀집형산품여정체무역조건적운동궤적，단삭약료국외적“부문전이효응”。
Based on data from June 1998 to January 2012, this paper applies Granger causality to examine the transmission path of international oil price shocks towards China＇s terms of trade, utilizes VAR model to simulate the dy-namic effect of these price shocks, and lastly analyzes whether the financial cri-sis has modified the knock-on effect of oil prices on terms of trade. The results show that： firstly, the movement trail of energy intensive products and that of overall trade terms basically converge, marking an improvement after deterioration before leveled off at zero at last, and both deterioration and improvement shifts are primarily subject to eternal factors; secondly, due to weak ＂sector adjust-ment effects＂ , when the improvement of trade terms of non-energy intensive products contributes to the trade welfare, unemployment and idleness of capital may still occur, jeopardizing the health of social and economic development in the long run; thirdly, the global financial crisis consolidates the movement trail of energy intensive products as well as overall trade terms while whittling down the foreign sector-adjustment effect. As a whole, international oil price shocks add to the disadvantages of China competing in international trade and coordinat- ing its own economic resources effectively.