科技促进发展
科技促進髮展
과기촉진발전
Science & Technology for Development
2013年
1期
71~76
,共null页
经济增长 碳排放 向量自回归（VAR） 模型
經濟增長 碳排放 嚮量自迴歸（VAR） 模型
경제증장 탄배방 향량자회귀（VAR） 모형
Economicgrowth; Carbon dioxide emissions; Vector auto regression （var） model
从经济增长与资源环境的关系入手，构建经济增长、能源消费和碳排放的向量自回归模型（VAR），运用脉冲响应函数研究三个变量之间的相互关系，并分别建立能源消费和二氧化碳排放为自变量的协整方程，结果表明：经济增长与能源消费和碳排放具有长期的协整关系，经济增长每提高1％，能源消费增长增加0．240％，同时导致二氧化碳排放增加0．295％。这说明我国的高速经济增长过程中，付出了较大的资源环境自然代价。
從經濟增長與資源環境的關繫入手，構建經濟增長、能源消費和碳排放的嚮量自迴歸模型（VAR），運用脈遲響應函數研究三箇變量之間的相互關繫，併分彆建立能源消費和二氧化碳排放為自變量的協整方程，結果錶明：經濟增長與能源消費和碳排放具有長期的協整關繫，經濟增長每提高1％，能源消費增長增加0．240％，同時導緻二氧化碳排放增加0．295％。這說明我國的高速經濟增長過程中，付齣瞭較大的資源環境自然代價。
종경제증장여자원배경적관계입수，구건경제증장、능원소비화탄배방적향량자회귀모형（VAR），운용맥충향응함수연구삼개변량지간적상호관계，병분별건립능원소비화이양화탄배방위자변량적협정방정，결과표명：경제증장여능원소비화탄배방구유장기적협정관계，경제증장매제고1％，능원소비증장증가0．240％，동시도치이양화탄배방증가0．295％。저설명아국적고속경제증장과정중，부출료교대적자원배경자연대개。
In this study, we chose the relationship between the economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as the breakthrough point, and triedto establish vector autoregressive model （VAR）, and analyzed the relationship between the three variables by the impulse response function.Co-integration equation was establishedin this study in which the independent variable was the energy consumption and carbon dioxide separately. We could obtain an important conclusion： there existing a long-term co-integration relationship among the economic growth and energy consumption and environmental pollution. Specifically, the energy consumption could increase 0.24% when the economic growth increased byl%, and which led to a 0,295% increase in carbon dioxide emissions. This showedthat China hadpaid a relatively high resources environment cost because of the high-speed economic growth.
