CAJ | 학술논문

完全开放资本账户是一把“双刃剑”．如果不能妥善使用就会伤及自身。推进人民币资本账户开放的改革，应该慎之又慎。笔者认为．随着我国金融改革的稳步推进，金融业市场的各种要素价格，如利率、汇率、通胀率等，已经逐渐放开，此时开放人民币资本账户极有可能会形成一个价格传导机制。这些金融价格变量相互之间的趋势影响，会产生顺周期性增强的问题。因此，本文的主要研究任务是，分析这一问题所可能带来的潜在风险．并提出相应的防范措施。
완전개방자본장호시일파“쌍인검”．여과불능타선사용취회상급자신。추진인민폐자본장호개방적개혁，응해신지우신。필자인위．수착아국금융개혁적은보추진，금융업시장적각충요소개격，여리솔、회솔、통창솔등，이경축점방개，차시개방인민폐자본장호겁유가능회형성일개개격전도궤제。저사금융개격변량상호지간적추세영향，회산생순주기성증강적문제。인차，본문적주요연구임무시，분석저일문제소가능대래적잠재풍험．병제출상응적방범조시。
Completely open capital account is a ＂double-edged sword＂ and it will be harmful if not properly used. Therefore, the reform of the RMB capital account liberalization should be cautious. The author believes that, with the steady progress of China＇s financial reform, the various elements of the market price of the financial section, such as interest rates, exchange rates and inflation rates, have already been gradually liberalized. The open RMB capital account is most likely to form a price transmission mechanism. The knock-on effect between and among different financial price variables will generate pro-cyclical problem. Therefore, the main content of this paper is how to have a correct understanding of the risks posed by this problem and to propose appropriate precautions.