中国工业经济
中國工業經濟
중국공업경제
China Industrial Economy
2013年
5期
18~30
,共null页
人均GDP 碳生产率 收敛 脱钩
人均GDP 碳生產率 收斂 脫鉤
인균GDP 탄생산솔 수렴 탈구
GDP per capita ; carbon productivity ; convergence ; decoupling
本文以中国1995--2011年29个省份的面板数据为样本，考察了人均GDP和碳生产率的趋同效应和脱钩状态，结果表明：①基于泰尔指数的dr收敛显示，全国整体在两变量上分别呈现倒“U”型和“U”型收敛趋势。但东中西内部和组闻的差距形态各异，且东部和组间差距均是两变量总体差距的主要成因；②8收敛结果显示，由于各省份在技术进步率、国际竞争程度、产业结构偏好和能源结构等因素上的差异，导致两变量更多地呈现条件／3收敛而非绝对B收敛趋势，即向各自的稳态水平而非统一水平趋近；（3）Tapio脱钩指数和追赶脱钩指数模型显示．中国各省份在实现人均GDP的不断增长，但碳生产率的增长速度相对滞后．说明碳生产率在向着一个相对较低的各自稳态水平趋近，要特别注意TaDi。脱钩指数中处于扩张绝对脱钩的省份和追赶脱钩指数中位于衰退相对脱钩的省份．谨防他们在发展模式上的进一步恶化。
本文以中國1995--2011年29箇省份的麵闆數據為樣本，攷察瞭人均GDP和碳生產率的趨同效應和脫鉤狀態，結果錶明：①基于泰爾指數的dr收斂顯示，全國整體在兩變量上分彆呈現倒“U”型和“U”型收斂趨勢。但東中西內部和組聞的差距形態各異，且東部和組間差距均是兩變量總體差距的主要成因；②8收斂結果顯示，由于各省份在技術進步率、國際競爭程度、產業結構偏好和能源結構等因素上的差異，導緻兩變量更多地呈現條件／3收斂而非絕對B收斂趨勢，即嚮各自的穩態水平而非統一水平趨近；（3）Tapio脫鉤指數和追趕脫鉤指數模型顯示．中國各省份在實現人均GDP的不斷增長，但碳生產率的增長速度相對滯後．說明碳生產率在嚮著一箇相對較低的各自穩態水平趨近，要特彆註意TaDi。脫鉤指數中處于擴張絕對脫鉤的省份和追趕脫鉤指數中位于衰退相對脫鉤的省份．謹防他們在髮展模式上的進一步噁化。
본문이중국1995--2011년29개성빈적면판수거위양본，고찰료인균GDP화탄생산솔적추동효응화탈구상태，결과표명：①기우태이지수적dr수렴현시，전국정체재량변량상분별정현도“U”형화“U”형수렴추세。단동중서내부화조문적차거형태각이，차동부화조간차거균시량변량총체차거적주요성인；②8수렴결과현시，유우각성빈재기술진보솔、국제경쟁정도、산업결구편호화능원결구등인소상적차이，도치량변량경다지정현조건／3수렴이비절대B수렴추세，즉향각자적은태수평이비통일수평추근；（3）Tapio탈구지수화추간탈구지수모형현시．중국각성빈재실현인균GDP적불단증장，단탄생산솔적증장속도상대체후．설명탄생산솔재향착일개상대교저적각자은태수평추근，요특별주의TaDi。탈구지수중처우확장절대탈구적성빈화추간탈구지수중위우쇠퇴상대탈구적성빈．근방타문재발전모식상적진일보악화。
With the panel data of China＇s 29 provinces during 1995--2011 as sample, this paper examines the convergence effect and decoupling state between GDP per capita and carbon productivity, and the results are as follows： （i）tr convergence based on Theil index shows that China as a whole appears to be inverted ＂U＂ and ＂U＂ form convergent tendency respectively in the two variables, however, gaps between the east, middle and west groups and among each group inside are different, and gaps between the east group and other groups are the main cause of the overall gap between the two variables; （2） convergence result manifests that because of the differences in technological development rate, international competition level, preference of industrial structure and energy structure etc. between provinces, the two variables show to be conditional convergence more than absolute convergence, i.e. approaching to each one＇s steady state respectively rather than to a single level; （3）Tapio decoupling index and pursuing decoupling index model reveal that although each province＇s GDP per capita continues to increase, the growth rate of carbon productivity relatively lags behind, which means carbon productivity rate is approaching to relatively low steady state respectively, and provinces with expand absolutely decoupling in Tapio decoupling index and provinces with decline relatively decoupling in pursuing decoupling index should be paid special attention to prevent them from further worsening in development pattern.
