CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用1953—2010年经济增长率数据，运用时差相关、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应与方差分解等方法，对流通产业在国民经济中的先导性进行了实证检验。研究发现：流通产业在长期上具有领先国民经济的特征，具有一定的先导产业性质；在流通产业对其他产业的关联或带动作用上和流通产业增长对其他产业的冲击响应上，交通运输仓储与邮政业都表现了广泛而显著的先导性，而批发与零售业的先导性则表现不太充分；以1978年为分界点的研究显示，流通产业整体上对国民经济的推动性显著加强，但批发零售业对第二产业的影响力却存在弱化的迹象。
본문채용1953—2010년경제증장솔수거，운용시차상관、격란걸인과관계검험、맥충향응여방차분해등방법，대류통산업재국민경제중적선도성진행료실증검험。연구발현：류통산업재장기상구유령선국민경제적특정，구유일정적선도산업성질；재류통산업대기타산업적관련혹대동작용상화류통산업증장대기타산업적충격향응상，교통운수창저여유정업도표현료엄범이현저적선도성，이비발여령수업적선도성칙표현불태충분；이1978년위분계점적연구현시，류통산업정체상대국민경제적추동성현저가강，단비발령수업대제이산업적영향력각존재약화적적상。
Based on China＇s Economic growth rate data between 1953- 2010, adopting the method of Granger Causality and Impulse Response Analysis, we make an empirical study on the leading role ofcirculation industry in national economy. The result shows., circulation industry presents a leading characteristic relative to national economy in the long term, and shows some nature of leading industry the industry of transportation, warehousing and postal services shows good ＂linkage effect＂ and ＂diffusion effect＂ in leading role, while the wholesale and retail industry is not sufficient in leading performance. This research discloses the information that the influence of the wholesale and retail industry on the second industry was significant before 1978 but not significant after 1978.