CAJ | 학술논문

随着第一、二产业节能减排潜力的快速释放及其节能减排成果边际递减效应日益明显，服务业成为我国节能减排亟需开拓的新领域。基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的碳排放因子与核算方法。估算了1995—2010年我国服务业能源消费与CO2排放量，并探讨其总体变化趋势；运用对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）辨识与分解研究样本区间内影响我国服务业CO2排放变动的关键因素及其贡献值。结果表明：我国服务业能源消费主要依赖于石油、煤炭等高碳化能源燃料．CO2排放置总体上呈现出上升趋势；产业规模和人口效应是服务业CO2排放最为主要的增量因素。而能源利用效率和能源结构则是服务业CO2排放减量的最主要贡献因素；交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业是服务业C02排放的主要部门。基于上述研究结论，指出我国服务业碳排放的调控重点和方向。
수착제일、이산업절능감배잠력적쾌속석방급기절능감배성과변제체감효응일익명현，복무업성위아국절능감배극수개탁적신영역。기우IPCC온실기체배방청단지남중적탄배방인자여핵산방법。고산료1995—2010년아국복무업능원소비여CO2배방량，병탐토기총체변화추세；운용대수평균적씨지수법（LMDI）변식여분해연구양본구간내영향아국복무업CO2배방변동적관건인소급기공헌치。결과표명：아국복무업능원소비주요의뢰우석유、매탄등고탄화능원연료．CO2배방치총체상정현출상승추세；산업규모화인구효응시복무업CO2배방최위주요적증량인소。이능원이용효솔화능원결구칙시복무업CO2배방감량적최주요공헌인소；교통운수、창저급유전통신업시복무업C02배방적주요부문。기우상술연구결론，지출아국복무업탄배방적조공중점화방향。
With the rapid release of energy saving potential and the marginal decreasing effect of energy conservation and emissions reduction in primary and secondary industries, the service industry has become new energy saving fields much needed to be developed. Based on the carbon emissions coefficient and the accounting method of energy consumption recommended by the IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories, this paper discusses the trend of energy consumption and CO2 emission of China＇s service industry during 1995 -2010, the key influencing factors and their contribution is also identified with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）. Findings show that： the energy consumption of service industry relies highly on carbonation energy fuel such as petroleum and coal, and CO2 emissions generally shows a rising trend; The main factors that influence the increase in carbon emissions are industry scale and population effect, while factors of energy efficiency and structure are the most important decreasing factors; Transportation, storage, post and telecommunication are the main departments of service industry to release CO2. At last, the focus and direction of energy conservation and emissions reduction in the service industry are promoted.