CAJ | 학술논문

文章以分析国际货物贸易与入境旅游互动关系为基础,建立包含入境旅游、国际货物贸易、经济增长、人口规模和对外开放等变量在内的动态面板回归模型,利用1985～2009年中国与欧洲七国的国际货物贸易额与入境旅游人数的面板数据与时间序列数据,采用面板回归分析法、格兰杰因果法、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法,分析了进口贸易和出口贸易对入境旅游的相互关系及其溢出效应。结果表明：（1）1985～2009年以来,我国出口贸易和进口贸易与入境旅游增长存在显著的正相关关系;（2）出口贸易与入境旅游增长具有互为因果的相互推动效应,而进口贸易与入境旅游增长之间则只存在单向格兰杰因果关系;（3）入境旅游对出口贸易和进口贸易的增长反应强烈,且呈正向效应;（4）方差分解结果表明,进口贸易和出口贸易对入境旅游增长变动具有不同的贡献度。
문장이분석국제화물무역여입경여유호동관계위기출,건립포함입경여유、국제화물무역、경제증장、인구규모화대외개방등변량재내적동태면판회귀모형,이용1985～2009년중국여구주칠국적국제화물무역액여입경여유인수적면판수거여시간서렬수거,채용면판회귀분석법、격란걸인과법、맥충향응함수화방차분해법,분석료진구무역화출구무역대입경여유적상호관계급기일출효응。결과표명：（1）1985～2009년이래,아국출구무역화진구무역여입경여유증장존재현저적정상관관계;（2）출구무역여입경여유증장구유호위인과적상호추동효응,이진구무역여입경여유증장지간칙지존재단향격란걸인과관계;（3）입경여유대출구무역화진구무역적증장반응강렬,차정정향효응;（4）방차분해결과표명,진구무역화출구무역대입경여유증장변동구유불동적공헌도。
Since the reform and liberalization of the international goods trade in China,international trade has developed rapidly.While trade growth has not strengthened the economic connection with other countries,it has accelerated the development of China＇s inbound tourism.This study used a dynamic regression model to analyze the overflow effect of the international goods trade on trade-related variables such as international trade goods,inbound tourists,economic growth and population,as well as the partnership between the international goods trade and these variables.Furthermore,we also use regression methods,the Granger causality test,impulse response function,and variance decomposition to study the impact of international goods trade on the development of inbound tourism,adopting seven European countries as examples and using panel data from 1985 to 2009 in China.The results of this study were as follows： First,there is a complementary relationship between the international goods trade and inbound tourism from 1985 to 2009 in China.This clearly indicates that inbound tourism is positively affected by the development of the international goods trade.Second,export trade and inbound tourism have Granger causality relations with each other.Our results imply that there is a significant impact relationship between export trade and inbound tourism.In addition,a single-direction Granger causality relation is found between import trade and inbound tourism.Thus,import trade has a more obvious effect on inbound tourism development,but the effect of inbound tourism on import trade is limited.Finally,the impulse response function indicates that the international goods trade has a great effect on inbound tourism.This further confirmed that the growth of the international goods trade is a strong factor in the promotion of inbound tourism.Moreover,export trade and import trade have different contributions to the growth of inbound tourism.China is already the ＂world＇s factory＂,and the amount of export trade is enormous.Hence,export trade has more of a contribution to the growth of inbound tourist flow than import trade does. With the development of economic globalization and international tourism,the spillover effect of the international goods trade on inbound tourism will increase further.Our conclusions could have important implications for policymakers in coordinating the development of the relationship between the international goods trade and inbound tourism.On the one hand,it is necessary to take into account changes in the international goods trade as the development of inbound tourism becomes the primary focus.To realize the development and prosperity of the international goods trade and inbound tourism,authorities do not need to consider expanding both import and export.Instead,they should focus on the important role of the international goods trade on inbound tourism and develop some policies to coordinate the relationship between the two.Furthermore,after the financial crisis,China＇s export trade is decreasing,so inbound tourism will be a new area of opportunity for economic growth.On the other hand,based on the ＂high consumer＂ characteristics of inbound tourists,the structure of products for inbound tourists needs to be updated continually to guarantee a supply of varied products.Developing a diversified inbound tourism market can expand demand and provide space for the development of the international goods trade.