系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2013年
5期
1207~1216
,共null页
煤层气 发电项目 经济平衡性 系统动力学 寺河
煤層氣 髮電項目 經濟平衡性 繫統動力學 寺河
매층기 발전항목 경제평형성 계통동역학 사하
coalbed methane; power projects; economic balance; system dynamics; Sihe
针对我国煤层气超标排放惩罚标准缺失及煤层气发电项目CDM权益模糊问题，运用系统动力学方法，建立了煤炭企业为主体的煤层气发电项目的经济平衡性模型．以寺河120MW煤层气发电项目为例，仿真了煤层气排空惩罚标准对煤炭企业经济平衡性的影响，及CDM权益对煤层气发电项目经济平衡性的影响．研究表明，煤层气排放的惩罚因子每提高1元／m2，煤炭企业需要付出的成本增加1．43亿元；当煤层气排放惩罚因子提高至10元／．10时，煤炭企业的利润率小于零；0．0574美元／m0的CDM权益不能保证项目达到国内同行12％-15％、国外同行20％以上的利润率，应将上网电价从0．2754元／kWh调整至0．3130元／kWh和0．3482元／kWh．
針對我國煤層氣超標排放懲罰標準缺失及煤層氣髮電項目CDM權益模糊問題，運用繫統動力學方法，建立瞭煤炭企業為主體的煤層氣髮電項目的經濟平衡性模型．以寺河120MW煤層氣髮電項目為例，倣真瞭煤層氣排空懲罰標準對煤炭企業經濟平衡性的影響，及CDM權益對煤層氣髮電項目經濟平衡性的影響．研究錶明，煤層氣排放的懲罰因子每提高1元／m2，煤炭企業需要付齣的成本增加1．43億元；噹煤層氣排放懲罰因子提高至10元／．10時，煤炭企業的利潤率小于零；0．0574美元／m0的CDM權益不能保證項目達到國內同行12％-15％、國外同行20％以上的利潤率，應將上網電價從0．2754元／kWh調整至0．3130元／kWh和0．3482元／kWh．
침대아국매층기초표배방징벌표준결실급매층기발전항목CDM권익모호문제，운용계통동역학방법，건립료매탄기업위주체적매층기발전항목적경제평형성모형．이사하120MW매층기발전항목위례，방진료매층기배공징벌표준대매탄기업경제평형성적영향，급CDM권익대매층기발전항목경제평형성적영향．연구표명，매층기배방적징벌인자매제고1원／m2，매탄기업수요부출적성본증가1．43억원；당매층기배방징벌인자제고지10원／．10시，매탄기업적리윤솔소우령；0．0574미원／m0적CDM권익불능보증항목체도국내동행12％-15％、국외동행20％이상적리윤솔，응장상망전개종0．2754원／kWh조정지0．3130원／kWh화0．3482원／kWh．
The description of the punishment for the enterprises who released excessive emissions of coalbed methane （CBM） was not well documented in China. In addition, it was unclear about the reasonable interests of CBM emissions reduction for the power projects who applied the clean development mechanism （CDM）. In this study, an economic balance model for CBM power projects headed by coal enterprises was established based on system dynamics. The Sihe 120MW CBM Power Project was used as a case study. We analyzed the impact of the punishment standard of CBM release on the economic balance of the coal enterprise, as well as the impact of the interests of CBM emissions reduction on the economic balance of the CBM power project. The results indicated that the cost of coal enterprises would increase 143 million Yuan if the punishment indicator of CBM emissions increased 1 Yuan per cubic meter. The profit would be zero when the punishment indicator of CBM emissions increased to 10 Yuan per cubic meter. It was also shown that the CBM power project cannot achieve the same profit level of 12% 15% as the domestic coal enterprises or the 20% profit rate as the foreign counterparts with 0.0574 dollar per cubic meter if only invested by the CDM. However, the objectives can be achievable if the network price of the plants can be increased from the current 0.2754 Yuan/kWh to 0.3130 Yuan/kWh and 0.3482 Yuan/kWh, respectively.
