科研管理
科研管理
과연관리
Science Research Management
2013年
5期
111~120
,共null页
优化模型 能耗强度 碳排放强度 经济增长 脱钩分析
優化模型 能耗彊度 碳排放彊度 經濟增長 脫鉤分析
우화모형 능모강도 탄배방강도 경제증장 탈구분석
optimal model; energy intensity; carbon emission intensity; economic growth; decoupling analysis
本文从全局最优角度建立了省区低碳经济增长优化模型，找到了在全国能耗强度和碳排放强度约束下各省经济增长最优路径，预测了各省碳排放、能源消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩状态。结果表明，若2010—2015年各省能耗强度与碳排放强度均能够实现政府制定的降低目标，将会阻碍山西、宁夏、内蒙古和贵州的经济增长，但能促进其他省区的经济增长；提高北京、河北、上海、浙江和广东的经济增长有利于带动山西、内蒙古和贵州的经济发展，但会提高部分省区的能源结构碳强度；全国能耗强度和碳排放强度的最优降幅分别为18．19％和19．56％。除海南或青海的碳排放、能源消耗与经济增长之间均处于增长连接状态外，其他省区均处于弱脱钩状态，说明在经济增长最优路径上各省节能减排效果明显；各省碳排放增速均小于能源消耗增速。说明各省能源结构将逐渐优化。
本文從全跼最優角度建立瞭省區低碳經濟增長優化模型，找到瞭在全國能耗彊度和碳排放彊度約束下各省經濟增長最優路徑，預測瞭各省碳排放、能源消耗與經濟增長之間的脫鉤狀態。結果錶明，若2010—2015年各省能耗彊度與碳排放彊度均能夠實現政府製定的降低目標，將會阻礙山西、寧夏、內矇古和貴州的經濟增長，但能促進其他省區的經濟增長；提高北京、河北、上海、浙江和廣東的經濟增長有利于帶動山西、內矇古和貴州的經濟髮展，但會提高部分省區的能源結構碳彊度；全國能耗彊度和碳排放彊度的最優降幅分彆為18．19％和19．56％。除海南或青海的碳排放、能源消耗與經濟增長之間均處于增長連接狀態外，其他省區均處于弱脫鉤狀態，說明在經濟增長最優路徑上各省節能減排效果明顯；各省碳排放增速均小于能源消耗增速。說明各省能源結構將逐漸優化。
본문종전국최우각도건립료성구저탄경제증장우화모형，조도료재전국능모강도화탄배방강도약속하각성경제증장최우로경，예측료각성탄배방、능원소모여경제증장지간적탈구상태。결과표명，약2010—2015년각성능모강도여탄배방강도균능구실현정부제정적강저목표，장회조애산서、저하、내몽고화귀주적경제증장，단능촉진기타성구적경제증장；제고북경、하북、상해、절강화엄동적경제증장유리우대동산서、내몽고화귀주적경제발전，단회제고부분성구적능원결구탄강도；전국능모강도화탄배방강도적최우강폭분별위18．19％화19．56％。제해남혹청해적탄배방、능원소모여경제증장지간균처우증장련접상태외，기타성구균처우약탈구상태，설명재경제증장최우로경상각성절능감배효과명현；각성탄배방증속균소우능원소모증속。설명각성능원결구장축점우화。
An optimal model of provincial lower - carbon economic growth is established based on the global optimal angle. Un-der the constraint of energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of China, the optimal path for provincial lower - carbon eco-nomic growth is found. The deeoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of each province is predicted, and the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of each province is also predicted. If each pro-vineial government is able to achieve the target of energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions intensity during the period of 2010- 2015, the economic growth rate of Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou would be impeded, however the eco- nomic growth rate of other provinces in China would be promoted. Increasing economic growth rate of Beijing, Hebei, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong is benefit to drive economic development of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou. But the energy - carbon intensity of several provinces would be increased. From 2010 to 2015, the energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of the whole nation would be reduced about 18.19% and 19.56%, respectively. Excerpt the carbon emissions, energy consump- tion, and economic growth for the provinces of Hainan and Qinghai all in the status of growth connection, rest of the provinces are all in the condition of weak decoupling. The results show that the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction is remarka-ble on the optimal economic growth path. The growth rate of carbon emissions is slower than the growth rate of energy consump- tion in each province. It means that energy resource structure of each province is gradually optimizing.
