CAJ | 학술논문

在运用差异系数和极化指数定量分析1978—2010年江苏区域经济差异和极化演变过程的基础上，以基尼系数和沃尔夫森指数的拟合关系式为依据，根据现有区域经济差异的预警标准推算出了极化的预警标准，对江苏区域经济极化的警戒水平作出了判定。并利用灰色模型预测了未来五年江苏区域经济极化的警戒水平和发展趋势。结果表明：江苏区域经济差异与极化呈现“先扩大，后缩小，再急剧扩大，后平缓波动扩大，最后缓慢减小”的演变过程；区域经济差异和极化的演变过程和发展趋势趋于一致，即随着区域经济差异的不断扩大，区域经济极化不断增强；江苏目前的经济极化水平偏高，且已超过了红灯警戒线；江苏未来五年的经济极化水平将徘徊在0．110左右，还可能向双红灯的警戒线发展。
재운용차이계수화겁화지수정량분석1978—2010년강소구역경제차이화겁화연변과정적기출상，이기니계수화옥이부삼지수적의합관계식위의거，근거현유구역경제차이적예경표준추산출료겁화적예경표준，대강소구역경제겁화적경계수평작출료판정。병이용회색모형예측료미래오년강소구역경제겁화적경계수평화발전추세。결과표명：강소구역경제차이여겁화정현“선확대，후축소，재급극확대，후평완파동확대，최후완만감소”적연변과정；구역경제차이화겁화적연변과정화발전추세추우일치，즉수착구역경제차이적불단확대，구역경제겁화불단증강；강소목전적경제겁화수평편고，차이초과료홍등경계선；강소미래오년적경제겁화수평장배회재0．110좌우，환가능향쌍홍등적경계선발전。
This essay uses the inequality and polariza- tion index to quantitatively analyze the evolution process of re- gional economic inequality and polarization of 1978 to 2010 in Jiangsu Province. Then, according to the fitting relationship for- mula of Gini Index and Wolfson Index, it makes a determination of warning level of regional economic polarization in Jiangsu Province based on the existing warning standard of regional eco- nomic inequality. It also uses the Gray Model to predict the warning levels and trends of regional economic polarization in Jiangsu Province in the next five years. The results show that the evolution process of regional economic inequality and polarization in Jiangsu Province presents a trend that firstly expanding after shrinking, and then expanding dramatically, expanding after gentle fluctuating, and finally decreasing slowly, that the evolu- tion process of regional economic inequality and polarization are consistent, that is, with the regional economic inequality expan- ding, regional economic polarization is also enhancing continu- ously, that the current economic polarization level of Jiangsu Province is too large, and has surpassed the Red Lamp Warning Line, and that the level of economic polarization in Jiangsu Prov- ince in the next five years will hover at the level of around 0. 110, and approach to the Double Red Lamp Warning Line.